validation-test

name	Validation Test
description	Test the assumption that would end the venture, with the pass bar fixed beforehand.
category	Venture

Validation Test

Test the thing that would kill the venture, not the thing that is easiest to test. Those are almost never the same, and picking the second is how a studio spends a quarter learning nothing.

When to use

• A venture is at thesis or validating stage.
• Somebody wants to start building.

Steps

1. Name the riskiest assumption. Usually demand, occasionally a supply constraint, rarely the technology — though the technology is what everybody wants to test because it is the enjoyable part.
2. Fix the pass bar before running, on the validations row. Afterwards, any result reads as encouraging: this is the single most important step here.
3. Pick the cheapest method that could actually fail. A landing page, a concierge build, a pre-sale. A pre-sale is worth ten interviews, because people say yes in interviews for free.
4. Run it long enough and wide enough to fail. A test that cannot produce a no is a marketing exercise.
5. Read it against the bar, not against hope. Record both.
6. Close honestly. failed and inconclusive are the results that save money, and a studio that never records one is validating nothing and building anyway.

Output

A validations row with the bar it was judged against and the actual result. A failed validation is a successful use of this skill.