unit-economics

name	unit-economics
description	Unit economics health monitoring — CLV vs CAC per channel, NDR monitoring (>100% healthy, <100% leaky, target 125%+), gross margin awareness (AI API costs as real COGS), premature scaling guard (block if CAC>CLV), channel health dashboard format. Use when evaluating channel profitability, monitoring revenue health, or before scaling any acquisition channel.
type	skill

Unit Economics

When to Apply

• Evaluating channel profitability
• Before scaling any acquisition channel
• When NDR or gross margin changes
• Quarterly unit economics review
• When the founder proposes increasing spend on a channel

Core Framework

CLV vs CAC Per Channel

Track unit economics per channel, not in aggregate:

Channel Health Dashboard:
  LinkedIn Outreach:
    CAC: $45 | CLV: $2,400 | Ratio: 53x | Verdict: EXCELLENT
    NDR: 125% | Trend: stable

  Paid Ads (Google):
    CAC: $180 | CLV: $800 | Ratio: 4.4x | Verdict: ACCEPTABLE
    NDR: 95% | Trend: slight shrinkage

  Cold Email:
    CAC: $320 | CLV: $600 | Ratio: 1.9x | Verdict: DANGER
    NDR: 80% | Trend: leaking
    -> "Cold email has marginal unit economics.
       Propose: pause, reallocate budget to LinkedIn."

Ratio benchmarks:

• < 1x: Losing money per customer (CRITICAL)
• 1-3x: Marginal, needs improvement
• 3-5x: Acceptable
• 5x+: Healthy, scale candidate
• 10x+: Excellent, aggressive scaling warranted

NDR (Net Dollar Retention) Monitoring

NDR measures whether existing cohorts grow or shrink over time:

NDR Range	Status	Action
>125%	Excellent	Cohorts growing fast. Strong expansion. Scale acquisition.
100-125%	Healthy	Cohorts stable or growing. Normal operation.
90-100%	Warning	Slight shrinkage. Investigate churn and downgrade causes.
<90%	Leaky bucket	Cohorts shrinking significantly. Fix retention before acquisition.

Target for early-stage B2B: 125%+

NDR < 100% means you must continuously acquire new customers just to maintain revenue. The business is on a treadmill.

Gross Margin Awareness

For AI-powered products, API costs are REAL COGS:

Revenue per customer: $49/mo
COGS breakdown:
  Claude API:           $8/mo   (16%)
  Infrastructure:       $3/mo   (6%)
  Third-party APIs:     $4/mo   (8%)
  Support allocation:   $2/mo   (4%)
  --------------------------------
  Total COGS:           $17/mo  (35%)
  Gross margin:         $32/mo  (65%)

  Viable threshold: >60% for SaaS
  Status: ACCEPTABLE (65%)

Warn if gross margin drops below viable thresholds:

• SaaS target: >70% (>60% minimum)
• Marketplace target: >50%
• If AI API costs push margin below threshold: "API costs are real COGS. Consider caching, model optimization, or pricing adjustment."

Premature Scaling Guard

Block recommendations to scale any channel with CAC > CLV.

Founder: "Let's double our Google Ads budget"

Agent check:
  Google Ads CAC: $180 | CLV: $800 | Ratio: 4.4x
  -> PASS: ratio > 3x, scaling is justified

vs.

  Cold Email CAC: $320 | CLV: $600 | Ratio: 1.9x
  -> BLOCK: "Fix unit economics before scaling.
     Scaling negative or marginal margins makes the problem worse."

Premature scaling = accelerating losses. The agent must refuse to recommend it.

Channel Health Dashboard Format

Standard format for periodic unit economics reporting:

CHANNEL HEALTH (Monthly Review)
=================================
Channel          CAC    CLV    Ratio  NDR    Verdict
LinkedIn         $45    $2.4K  53x    125%   SCALE
Content/SEO      $25    $1.8K  72x    118%   SCALE
Paid Ads         $180   $800   4.4x   95%    MONITOR
Cold Email       $320   $600   1.9x   80%    PAUSE
Referral         $15    $2.1K  140x   130%   SCALE

AGGREGATE
  Blended CAC: $85 | Blended CLV: $1.4K | Ratio: 16x
  Warning: aggregate masks unhealthy channels.
  Per-channel analysis is authoritative.

Decision Rules

1. Per-channel, not aggregate — blended metrics mask problems
2. CAC < CLV required for scaling — no exceptions
3. NDR < 100% = fix retention first — acquisition on a leaky bucket is waste
4. API costs are COGS — not free, not overhead; real cost of goods sold
5. Gross margin must be viable — >60% for SaaS, >50% for marketplace
6. Channel health reviewed monthly — economics shift over time

Anti-Patterns to Detect

Anti-Pattern	Signal	Response
Scaling negative margins	CAC > CLV + proposal to increase spend	"Fix unit economics before scaling. Scaling losses makes them bigger."
Blended metric blindness	"Our overall CAC is fine"	"Per-channel analysis shows Cold Email at 1.9x. Aggregate masks this."
Ignoring API costs	Gross margin calculated without API costs	"AI API costs are real COGS. Include in margin calculation."
NDR ignorance	No NDR tracking	"Without NDR, you don't know if cohorts are growing or shrinking."
Treadmill business	NDR < 100% with heavy acquisition spend	"Cohorts are shrinking. You're acquiring to replace, not grow."
Premature channel expansion	Adding new channels before existing ones profitable	"Optimize current channels before adding new ones."