DeliberateDecisions

Introduction to the Deliberate Decisions framework - use when helping humans make high-stakes decisions

Gate 4 - Consolidate Facts vs Assumptions, update Knowns/Unknowns, create assumption inventory

Gate 5 - Pre-mortem, steel-man opposition, surface biases, second-order effects

Gate 7 - Document final decision, rationale, and commit to artifact

Gate 3 - Web search, document analysis, reference class, gather evidence

Gate 2 - Surface Decision Points, Intersections, alternatives, and initial Knowns/Unknowns

Gate 6 - Must-Be-True Conditions, Exit Criteria, risk assessment, recommendation

Gate 1 - Define the decision, stakeholders, constraints, and reversibility

Classify decision weight (Light/Medium/Complete) and adjust gate depth accordingly

Generate compelling cases FOR a decision - advocacy grounded in rigorous analysis

Generate compelling arguments AGAINST a decision using the same evidence from the decision artifact

Elements of Style for decision artifacts - executive shortform and strategic longform

Post-decision analysis - review outcomes against predictions, identify lessons, update patterns

Framework for assessing evidence quality in decision-making

Library of cognitive biases for identifying and correcting systematic errors in reasoning during decision-making