pop-report-and-scarcity-premium

name	pop-report-and-scarcity-premium
description	Use when valuing a card based on pop count. Low pop = premium; growing pop = price pressure.

Pop Report and Scarcity Premium

Pop counts drive premium. PSA 10 pop < 100 = scarcity premium; pop > 10,000 = liquidity card.

Pop count tiers

PSA 10 pop	Pricing dynamic
1-10	Auction-only, scarcity premium 5-20× normal
10-50	Scarcity premium 2-5×
50-200	Mild scarcity premium
200-1,000	Standard premium
1,000-5,000	Liquid market, comp-driven
5,000+	Commodity, fee-floor pricing
10,000+	Diminishing returns, may compress

Pop growth signals

Track pop growth quarterly:

• Pop +5%/quarter = healthy
• Pop +15%/quarter = supply pressure (price may compress)
• Pop +30%/quarter = saturation incoming
• Pop flat = stable market

Pop manipulation

Watch for:

1. Sudden pop spike after price ramp = submitters chasing → expect pullback
2. Pop 9 >> Pop 10 = most miss 10 by one axis → submission EV poor
3. Pop 10 = 1 'highest known' = liquidity vanishes; niche collector only

Where this fits in the X3 empire

Sniper tool integrates pop data for accurate scarcity-adjusted pricing.