variable-identification

name	variable-identification
description	Identify key variables in the causal system
execution	strategy
used-by	causal-modeling

Variable Identification

Systematically surface all variables that participate in the causal system under study. This strategy drives CC to read source material, extract candidate variables, create variable pages, and flag potential confounders before any mechanism edges are drawn.

Guiding Focus

CC must resist the urge to jump straight to causal edges. The quality of the entire causal model depends on having a complete, well-scoped variable inventory first. Every variable should be grounded in at least one source page, typed (exposure, outcome, mediator, moderator, confounder, or instrument), and given a plain-language description. Confounders deserve explicit flagging because they are the most common source of spurious causal claims.

Available Tactics

• counterfactual-reasoning — use "what if this variable were absent?" to test whether a candidate is truly load-bearing
• evidence-weighing — prioritize variables that appear across multiple independent sources over single-mention candidates

Budget Slice

Metric	S	M	L
Variables identified	6	15	30
Source pages analyzed	5	15	30
Confounders flagged	2	5	10

State Ledger Template

| Metric              | Target | Current | Status |
|---------------------|--------|---------|--------|
| Variables identified | S:6 / M:15 / L:30 | 0 | ⬜ |
| Source pages analyzed | S:5 / M:15 / L:30 | 0 | ⬜ |
| Confounders flagged | S:2 / M:5 / L:10 | 0 | ⬜ |

Cannot exit until 80% of budget met. Print state ledger before each iteration decision.