| name | hypothesis-elimination |
| description | Diagnostic reasoning for finding root causes. Generates multiple hypotheses, designs tests to eliminate each, and converges on the true cause through evidence. |
| metadata | {"clawdbot":{"requires":{"env":"[Truncated]"}}} |
| user-invocable | true |
Hypothesis-Elimination (HE)
Find the root CAUSE of issues through systematic hypothesis testing and elimination.
When to Use
- Debugging complex issues
- Root cause analysis
- Diagnostic problems
- Evidence can be gathered to test hypotheses
- Multiple possible causes exist
Process
Phase 1: Hypothesis Generation
Generate 5-8 possible causes:
Symptom: [observed problem]
H1: [possible cause 1]
H2: [possible cause 2]
H3: [possible cause 3]
H4: [possible cause 4]
H5: [possible cause 5]
Phase 2: Test Design
For each hypothesis, design a test:
| Hypothesis | Test | Expected if TRUE | Expected if FALSE |
|---|
| H1 | [test] | [result] | [result] |
| H2 | [test] | [result] | [result] |
| H3 | [test] | [result] | [result] |
Phase 3: Evidence Gathering
Execute tests in order of:
- Easiest to perform
- Most discriminating (eliminates most hypotheses)
- Lowest risk
Phase 4: Elimination
After each test, update hypothesis status:
- ELIMINATED: Evidence contradicts
- SUPPORTED: Evidence consistent
- INCONCLUSIVE: Need more data
Phase 5: Convergence
Continue until:
- One hypothesis remains (root cause found)
- Multiple remain (need more tests)
- All eliminated (missing hypothesis - regenerate)
Output Template
## HE Analysis: [Problem]
### Symptom
[Detailed description of observed issue]
### Hypotheses
| ID | Hypothesis | Prior Confidence |
|----|------------|------------------|
| H1 | [cause] | X% |
| H2 | [cause] | X% |
| H3 | [cause] | X% |
### Tests Performed
#### Test 1: [description]
- **Result**: [observation]
- **Eliminates**: H2, H4
- **Supports**: H1, H3
#### Test 2: [description]
- **Result**: [observation]
- **Eliminates**: H3
- **Supports**: H1
### Elimination Matrix
| Hypothesis | Test 1 | Test 2 | Test 3 | Status |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| H1 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | **ROOT CAUSE** |
| H2 | ✗ | - | - | Eliminated |
| H3 | ✓ | ✗ | - | Eliminated |
| H4 | ✗ | - | - | Eliminated |
### Root Cause
**H1: [description]**
### Evidence Summary
- [evidence 1 supporting H1]
- [evidence 2 supporting H1]
### Recommended Fix
[action to address root cause]
Example
Symptom: API requests failing intermittently
Hypotheses:
- H1: Database connection pool exhaustion
- H2: Memory leak causing OOM
- H3: Network timeouts to external service
- H4: Rate limiting by upstream API
- H5: DNS resolution failures
Tests:
- Check connection pool metrics → H1 supported (pool at 100%)
- Check memory graphs → H2 eliminated (memory stable)
- Check external service logs → H3 eliminated (all succeed)
- Check rate limit headers → H4 eliminated (under limit)
Root Cause: H1 - Database connection pool exhaustion
Fix: Increase pool size, add connection timeout
