hypothesis-elimination

# Hypothesis-Elimination (HE) Find the root CAUSE of issues through systematic hypothesis testing and elimination. ## When to Use - Debugging complex issues - Root cause analysis - Diagnostic problems - Evidence can be gathered to test hypotheses - Multiple possible causes exist ## Process ### Phase 1: Hypothesis Generation Generate 5-8 possible causes: ``` Symptom: [observed problem] H1: [possible cause 1] H2: [possible cause 2] H3: [possible cause 3] H4: [possible cause 4] H5: [possible cause 5] ``` ### Phase 2: Test Design For each hypothesis, design a test: | Hypothesis | Test | Expected if TRUE | Expected if FALSE | |------------|------|------------------|-------------------| | H1 | [test] | [result] | [result] | | H2 | [test] | [result] | [result] | | H3 | [test] | [result] | [result] | ### Phase 3: Evidence Gathering Execute tests in order of: 1. Easiest to perform 2. Most discriminating (eliminates most hypotheses) 3. Lowest risk ### Phase 4: Elimination After each test, update hypothesis status: - **ELIMINATED**: Evidence contradicts - **SUPPORTED**: Evidence consistent - **INCONCLUSIVE**: Need more data ### Phase 5: Convergence Continue until: - One hypothesis remains (root cause found) - Multiple remain (need more tests) - All eliminated (missing hypothesis - regenerate) ## Output Template ```markdown ## HE Analysis: [Problem] ### Symptom [Detailed description of observed issue] ### Hypotheses | ID | Hypothesis | Prior Confidence | |----|------------|------------------| | H1 | [cause] | X% | | H2 | [cause] | X% | | H3 | [cause] | X% | ### Tests Performed #### Test 1: [description] - **Result**: [observation] - **Eliminates**: H2, H4 - **Supports**: H1, H3 #### Test 2: [description] - **Result**: [observation] - **Eliminates**: H3 - **Supports**: H1 ### Elimination Matrix | Hypothesis | Test 1 | Test 2 | Test 3 | Status | |------------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | H1 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | **ROOT CAUSE** | | H2 | ✗ | - | - | Eliminated | | H3 | ✓ | ✗ | - | Eliminated | | H4 | ✗ | - | - | Eliminated | ### Root Cause **H1: [description]** ### Evidence Summary - [evidence 1 supporting H1] - [evidence 2 supporting H1] ### Recommended Fix [action to address root cause] ``` ## Example **Symptom**: API requests failing intermittently **Hypotheses**: - H1: Database connection pool exhaustion - H2: Memory leak causing OOM - H3: Network timeouts to external service - H4: Rate limiting by upstream API - H5: DNS resolution failures **Tests**: 1. Check connection pool metrics → H1 supported (pool at 100%) 2. Check memory graphs → H2 eliminated (memory stable) 3. Check external service logs → H3 eliminated (all succeed) 4. Check rate limit headers → H4 eliminated (under limit) **Root Cause**: H1 - Database connection pool exhaustion **Fix**: Increase pool size, add connection timeout