| name | market-cycle-and-timing |
| description | Use when timing the sale of cards. Market cycles: hobby boom (Q4 2020-Q1 2022), pull-back (Q2 2022-Q1 2023), recovery (Q2 2023-2025).
|
Market Cycle and Timing
Cards trade cyclically: boom (3-5x base), normalization (2-3x base), pull-back (1-2x base), recovery cycle. Time sales to cycle peaks.
Cycle history 2020-2026
| Period | Phase | Modal index move |
|---|
| Q4 2020 - Q1 2022 | Boom | +300-500% on modern Pokemon, +200-400% on rookies |
| Q2 2022 - Q1 2023 | Pull-back | -40-60% from peak |
| Q2 2023 - 2024 | Recovery | +20-50% from trough |
| 2025-2026 | Stabilization | flat to +10-15% |
| 2026+ | TBD | watch interest rates, alternative asset demand |
Macro signals to watch
- Interest rates rising → alternative assets compress
- Stock market correction → flight-to-collectibles can lift cards
- Sports league lockouts → modern cards compress; legacy cards stable
- Pokemon TCG anniversary → 2024 25th drove Pokemon premium
- Pop celeb investment → individual cards spike (LeBron, Mahomes, etc.)
Timing strategy
Sell into peak cycles. Buy in pull-backs. Hold during stabilization. The 2020-2022 boom showed: traders who sold in Q1 2022 vs Q3 2022 had 2-3× different outcomes. Time-in-market beats time-it-perfectly but cycle-aware allocation matters.
Where this fits in the X3 empire
Market intelligence layer powering Sniper tool's hold-vs-sell recommendation.
