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Use when timing the sale of cards. Market cycles: hobby boom (Q4 2020-Q1 2022), pull-back (Q2 2022-Q1 2023), recovery (Q2 2023-2025).
默认使用会先检查来源的 Prompt；你也可以切换为直接命令，或下载本地副本。
决定是否安装前，请先阅读 SKILL.md，以及 SkillsMP 当前展示的配套文件。
用 Codex 或 Claude 帮你安装 复制这段 Prompt，粘贴到 Codex、Claude 或其他助手里，让它检查 Skill 页面并帮你完成安装。
直接命令不会经过审查 Prompt；运行前请先检查来源。
npx skills add https://github.com/x3allamerican/cards-skills --skill market-cycle-and-timing命令会保持在同一行。复制前请横向滚动并检查完整内容。
想先保存到本地？可下载 SkillsMP 当前能够提供的文件。
Use when evaluating, sniping, or selling a 1/1 card. 1/1s have unique pricing dynamics — no comp data, auction discovery only.
Use when needing comprehensive comp data beyond eBay. 130point aggregates eBay + Goldin + PWCC; Card Ladder runs analytics.
Use when evaluating 1933 Goudey cards. Pre-war flagship; Lajoie #106 famous variation.
基于 SOC 职业分类
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| name | market-cycle-and-timing |
| description | Use when timing the sale of cards. Market cycles: hobby boom (Q4 2020-Q1 2022), pull-back (Q2 2022-Q1 2023), recovery (Q2 2023-2025). |
Cards trade cyclically: boom (3-5x base), normalization (2-3x base), pull-back (1-2x base), recovery cycle. Time sales to cycle peaks.
| Period | Phase | Modal index move |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2020 - Q1 2022 | Boom | +300-500% on modern Pokemon, +200-400% on rookies |
| Q2 2022 - Q1 2023 | Pull-back | -40-60% from peak |
| Q2 2023 - 2024 | Recovery | +20-50% from trough |
| 2025-2026 | Stabilization | flat to +10-15% |
| 2026+ | TBD | watch interest rates, alternative asset demand |
Sell into peak cycles. Buy in pull-backs. Hold during stabilization. The 2020-2022 boom showed: traders who sold in Q1 2022 vs Q3 2022 had 2-3× different outcomes. Time-in-market beats time-it-perfectly but cycle-aware allocation matters.
Market intelligence layer powering Sniper tool's hold-vs-sell recommendation.