morphological-scenario

name	morphological-scenario
description	What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration
version	1.0.0
category	experiment-execution
type	strategy
sops	["scenario-driver-identification","parameter-enumeration","consistency-pair-evaluation","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-impact-assessment","robustness-scoring","scenario-synthesis"]
tactics	["parameter-space-construction","cross-consistency-filtering","strategy-robustness-testing"]
dependencies	{"sops":["experiment-execution-consistency-pair-evaluation","parameter-enumeration","robustness-scoring","scenario-driver-identification","scenario-impact-assessment","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-synthesis"],"tactics":["cross-consistency-filtering","parameter-space-construction","strategy-robustness-testing"]}

Strategy: Morphological Scenario

Methodology

General Morphological Analysis (Zwicky) combined with Cross-Consistency Assessment (Ritchey). Systematically enumerate all possible combinations of key uncertainty parameters, filter for internal consistency, and assess surviving configurations as plausible scenarios.

Key principles:

• Completeness: Every relevant parameter dimension is included
• MECE values: Each parameter has mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive values
• Pairwise consistency: Filter via CCA matrix before narrative construction
• Combinatorial discipline: Let the morphological field drive discovery, not intuition

Execution Flow

1. Identify drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification

   • Input: research context, planning horizon
   • Output: 5-8 key uncertainty drivers

2. Enumerate parameters → spawn parameter-enumeration

   • Input: driver list
   • Output: Zwicky Box (parameter × value matrix)

3. Consistency filtering → spawn consistency-pair-evaluation

   • Input: Zwicky Box
   • Output: CCA matrix, surviving configurations

4. Narrative construction → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (per surviving config)

   • Input: parameter configuration
   • Output: scenario narrative

5. Impact assessment → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per scenario)

   • Input: scenario narrative, research approach
   • Output: impact analysis

6. Robustness scoring → spawn robustness-scoring

   • Input: all impact assessments
   • Output: robustness index

7. Synthesis → spawn scenario-synthesis

   • Input: all scenarios, robustness scores
   • Output: final scenario portfolio report

Budget Gate

Step	Token Budget