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What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration
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Strategy: Dialectic engine retuned for truth-seeking, not survival. A defender steelmans a claim into its MOST falsifiable form, a critic attacks to refute it, a judge classifies the exchange into BROKEN/CORROBORATED/UNFALSIFIABLE — the judge does NOT pick a winner or score persuasiveness. Methods: Irving debate (repurposed), Toulmin argumentation, Mayo severe testing.
Campaign: Logical extreme and boundary testing via reductio ad absurdum and edge-case analysis. Core question: Does this artifact collapse under logical limits and boundary conditions? Methods: Lakatos 1976, Dutilh Novaes 2016, BVA, Flyvbjerg Critical Case, Popper.
Campaign for mapping argument structures — extract claims, link evidence, assess strength, synthesize positions. Produces argument graphs in the wiki vault.
基于 SOC 职业分类
正在显示 SKILL.md
| name | morphological-scenario |
| description | What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | experiment-execution |
| type | strategy |
| sops | ["scenario-driver-identification","parameter-enumeration","consistency-pair-evaluation","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-impact-assessment","robustness-scoring","scenario-synthesis"] |
| tactics | ["parameter-space-construction","cross-consistency-filtering","strategy-robustness-testing"] |
| dependencies | {"sops":["experiment-execution-consistency-pair-evaluation","parameter-enumeration","robustness-scoring","scenario-driver-identification","scenario-impact-assessment","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-synthesis"],"tactics":["cross-consistency-filtering","parameter-space-construction","strategy-robustness-testing"]} |
General Morphological Analysis (Zwicky) combined with Cross-Consistency Assessment (Ritchey). Systematically enumerate all possible combinations of key uncertainty parameters, filter for internal consistency, and assess surviving configurations as plausible scenarios.
Key principles:
Identify drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification
Enumerate parameters → spawn parameter-enumeration
Consistency filtering → spawn consistency-pair-evaluation
Narrative construction → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (per surviving config)
Impact assessment → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per scenario)
Robustness scoring → spawn robustness-scoring
Synthesis → spawn scenario-synthesis
| Step | Token Budget |
|---|
| Notes |
|---|
| Driver identification | 8K | Single pass |
| Parameter enumeration | 10K | May iterate once |
| Consistency filtering | 15K | O(n²) pairwise |
| Narrative construction | 12K × N | N = surviving configs (typically 4-8) |
| Impact assessment | 10K × N | Per scenario |
| Robustness scoring | 8K | Aggregation |
| Synthesis | 12K | Final compilation |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| cross-consistency-filtering | Orchestrates pairwise consistency evaluation and narrative construction to filter the morphological field |
| parameter-space-construction | Orchestrates driver identification and parameter enumeration to build the complete morphological field |
| strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| experiment-execution-consistency-pair-evaluation | Pairwise consistency assessment using Cross-Consistency Assessment (CCA) matrix |
| parameter-enumeration | Enumerate possible values for each uncertainty driver using MECE principles |
| robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis |
| scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning |
| scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions |
| scenario-narrative-construction | Build rich narratives for surviving morphological configurations using Shell method |
| scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |