| name | flexibility-analysis |
| description | Use when deciding between flexible and non-refundable tickets, or when travel plans might change. Triggers on refundable vs non-refundable, cancel risk, change fee, should I buy flexible ticket. |
Flexibility Analysis - Phân Tích Rủi Ro Linh Hoạt
Purpose
Prevent the "$150 savings that costs $720" scenario. When travelers buy non-refundable tickets to save money, they're making an implicit bet that their plans won't change. This skill makes that bet explicit with break-even probability analysis.
Input Required
flight_options[] with fare classes from flight-searchrisk_tolerance from profileschedule_certainty (user estimate: "How sure are you this trip happens as planned?")
- 95-100%: Very certain (confirmed meetings, events)
- 80-94%: Likely but could change
- 50-79%: Uncertain (tentative plans)
- < 50%: Very uncertain
Execution Steps
Step 1: Score Each Option (Flexibility Score 0-100)
Calculate based on fare rules:
flex_score = change_score (0-30)
+ cancel_score (0-30)
+ rebooking_score (0-20)
+ protection_score (0-20)
Change Score (0-30):
- Free unlimited changes: 30
- Free change, fare diff only: 25
- Change with fee < $50: 20
- Change with fee $50-100: 15
- Change with fee $100-200: 10
- Change with high fee (> $200): 5
- No changes allowed: 0
Cancel Score (0-30):
- Full cash refund: 30
- Full credit voucher (12+ months): 20
- Partial refund (50%+): 15
- Credit voucher (< 12 months): 10
- Cancel fee > 50% of ticket: 5
- Non-refundable, no credit: 0
Rebooking Score (0-20):
- Same fare class guaranteed: 20
- Subject to availability, same cabin: 15
- Subject to availability, any cabin: 10
- Rebooked on different airline: 5
- No rebooking: 0
Protection Score (0-20):
- Covered by travel insurance included: 20
- 24-hour free cancellation applies: 10
- Credit card trip protection: 10
- No protection: 0
Step 2: Scenario Costing
For each option, calculate cost under 3 scenarios:
| Scenario | What Happens | Cost |
|---|
| As planned | Nothing changes | ticket_price |
| Date change ±2 days | Need to shift by 2 days | change_fee + fare_diff_estimate |
| Full cancellation | Trip doesn't happen | ticket_price - refund_amount |
| No-show | Miss the flight | ticket_price (total loss) |
Present as table:
SCENARIO COSTING: HAN → SFO
Saver ($750) Flex ($920) Refundable ($1,100)
As planned $750 $920 $1,100
Change ±2 days $750+$100+diff $920+$0+diff $1,100+$0+diff
Full cancel $750 → $0 lost $920 → $750 credit $1,100 → $1,050 refund
No-show $750 lost $920 lost** $1,100 → $900 credit**
** Some airlines forfeit no-show even on flex tickets
Step 3: Break-Even Analysis
The key calculation: "At what probability of needing to change does the flexible ticket become the better deal?"
Formula:
premium = flex_price - saver_price
loss_if_cancel = saver_price - saver_refund
break_even_probability = premium / loss_if_cancel × 100
Example:
Saver: $750 (refund: $0)
Flex: $920 (refund: $750 credit)
Premium: $920 - $750 = $170
Loss if cancel saver: $750 - $0 = $750
Break-even: $170 / $750 = 22.7%
→ If there's more than a 23% chance your plans change,
the Flex ticket is the smarter financial decision.
Step 4: Hidden Terms Alert
Flag terms that travelers often miss:
- Minimum stay: Some fares require staying minimum 3 nights or including a Saturday
- Blackout dates: Fare not valid during peak periods
- Credit voucher validity: Often 12 months from issue date, not from original travel date
- Name change: Most tickets don't allow name changes (affects corporate rebooking)
- Route restriction: Credit may only apply to same route
- Fare class on rebooking: Original fare class may not be available at change time
- No-show penalty: Even Flex tickets may forfeit value on no-show (must cancel BEFORE departure)
Step 5: Recommendation
Based on break-even analysis + user's schedule_certainty:
FLEXIBILITY RECOMMENDATION:
Your schedule certainty: 75% (uncertain)
Break-even probability: 23%
Your implied change probability: 25% (100% - 75%)
Since 25% > 23% → BUY THE FLEX TICKET ($920)
Expected cost calculation:
Saver: 75% × $750 + 25% × $750(lost) = $750 guaranteed, but
risk-adjusted: $750 + 25% × $750 = $938 expected cost
Flex: $920 guaranteed, with $750 credit if canceled
risk-adjusted: 75% × $920 + 25% × $170 = $733 expected cost
Flex ticket saves you $205 in expected value.
Step 6: Output Scorecard
FLEXIBILITY SCORECARD
Option Price Flex Score Break-even Recommendation
Saver Economy $750 15/100 - Only if 95%+ certain
Flex Economy $920 65/100 23% ✅ Best for your profile
Full Refundable $1,100 95/100 47% Only if < 53% certain
Business Flex $2,400 90/100 N/A Overkill for this trip
Reference
Read references/fare-class-rules.md for airline-specific fare class breakdown.
Limitations
- Fare difference on rebooking is unpredictable (estimated at ±$50-200)
- Break-even assumes binary outcome (trip happens or doesn't)
- In reality, partial changes (date shift) have different costs than full cancel
- Corporate travel policies may override personal preference
