workflow-er-earnings-update

# Equity Research: Earnings Analysis (Update and Preview) ## What this skill covers Two workflows for earnings-driven research notes: the post-release earnings update (8-12 pages) and the pre-release earnings preview (3-5 pages). Both produce tool-sourced analysis with updated estimates, thesis assessment, and revised price target. ## Inputs - Company ticker and reporting period - Existing coverage: current price target, rating, bull/base/bear scenarios - Mode: **update** (post-release) or **preview** (pre-release) ## Earnings Update Workflow (post-release, 8-12 pages) ### Step 1 — Beat/miss summary Call `fmp_earnings` — compare actual EPS, revenue vs consensus estimates: - Magnitude of surprise: % beat/miss on revenue and EPS - Quality of beat: operating vs below-the-line items (tax rate benefit, share buybacks) - Headline vs adjusted: confirm which metric management highlighted ### Step 2 — Guidance revision impact Call `fmp_analyst_estimates` — pull forward estimates and compare to prior guidance: - Revenue guide: raised / maintained / lowered vs street - Margin commentary: input cost trends, pricing power, product mix shift - Quantify the guidance delta vs prior-period guide and vs street consensus ### Step 3 — Updated estimates Revise revenue, EBITDA, and EPS forecasts: - Show old vs new estimates side-by-side with change rationale - Flow through to updated `three_statement_model` if revision is material (>5% change in any year) - Update `dcf_model` inputs with revised projections ### Step 4 — Thesis impact assessment Does this quarter change the bull/base/bear framework? - **Thesis confirming:** results in-line or better — maintain rating; note supporting data points - **Thesis challenging:** negative surprise on a key driver — reassess case weights - **Thesis breaking:** core assumption proven wrong — trigger downgrade review Document which scenario's probability weight changes and by how much. ### Step 5 — Price target update Call `target_price` with revised inputs: - Updated DCF value from `dcf_model` - Updated comps implied value from `comps_analysis` - Revised blended target - Updated `sensitivity_matrix`: WACC ±100bps vs TGR ±50bps ### Report structure (8-12 pages) 1. Headline (rating, old vs new PT, recommendation) 2. Quarterly results summary (beat/miss table) 3. Key themes from the quarter (3-5 bullets) 4. Estimate revision table (old vs new by year) 5. Thesis assessment (confirming / challenging / breaking) 6. Updated valuation summary 7. Updated sensitivity tables 8. Risk factors (unchanged or updated) ## Earnings Preview Workflow (pre-release, 3-5 pages) ### Step 1 — Consensus expectations Call `fmp_analyst_estimates` — current street estimates for revenue, EPS, key segment metrics: - Consensus revenue, EBITDA, EPS for the upcoming quarter - Implied growth rates vs prior-year quarter - Estimate revision trend (up / down / stable over last 30 days) ### Step 2 — Key items to watch Identify 3-5 metrics that will drive the stock reaction: - Margins: gross margin trajectory, SGA leverage, operating margin trend - Guidance: forward quarter and full-year outlook — will it be raised, maintained, or lowered? - Segment mix: growth vs mature segment contribution - Special items: restructuring charges, M&A commentary, FX headwinds ### Step 3 — Historical surprise pattern Call `fmp_earnings` for last 4-8 quarters of beat/miss history: - Directional bias: does the company consistently beat or guide conservatively? - Typical surprise magnitude in % terms (revenue and EPS) - Most recent surprise and stock reaction ### Step 4 — Scenario analysis Model beat/miss/inline impacts on price target using `sensitivity_matrix`: - Beat scenario: estimate + 1 standard deviation; implied stock reaction and revised PT - Miss scenario: estimate - 1 standard deviation; implied stock reaction and revised PT - Inline scenario: numbers in-line but guidance tone drives the reaction ### Report structure (3-5 pages) 1. Preview summary (what we expect, key debates) 2. Consensus expectations table 3. Key items to watch (3-5 bullets with context) 4. Historical surprise pattern summary 5. Pre-earnings scenario table (beat / inline / miss) 6. Positioning recommendation ## Output format - **Update note:** 8-12 pages with beat/miss table, old vs new estimate table, updated PT summary, updated sensitivity tables - **Preview note:** 3-5 pages with consensus table, key items, scenario table ## Quality gates - [ ] Actuals vs consensus sourced from `fmp_earnings` and `fmp_analyst_estimates` — not manually entered - [ ] Price target revision uses `target_price` and `dcf_model` — not narrative judgment - [ ] Three scenarios explicitly assessed (confirming / challenging / breaking) - [ ] Old vs new estimates shown side-by-side with change rationale - [ ] `sensitivity_matrix` updated for new inputs ## Related skills - `workflow-er-initiating-coverage` — produces the baseline PT, rating, and scenarios updated here - `workflow-er-thesis-tracker` — thesis evolution framework that tracks scenario drift across multiple earnings - `workflow-er-model-update` — full model revision when the earnings change is material - `workflow-er-morning-note` — same-day post-earnings brief for the trading desk