workflow-er-earnings-update

name

workflow-er-earnings-update

description

WHAT: Two-mode earnings workflow — (1) post-release earnings update note (8-12 pages) covering beat/miss analysis, guidance revision impact, estimate revisions, thesis assessment, and price target update; (2) pre-release earnings preview note (3-5 pages) covering consensus expectations, key metrics to watch, historical surprise patterns, and scenario analysis. WHEN: Invoke after a quarterly or annual earnings release to produce an earnings update note, or ahead of a scheduled earnings release to produce an earnings preview. Requires an existing coverage position (use workflow-er-initiating-coverage first).

Equity Research: Earnings Analysis (Update and Preview)

What this skill covers

Two workflows for earnings-driven research notes: the post-release earnings update (8-12 pages) and the pre-release earnings preview (3-5 pages). Both produce tool-sourced analysis with updated estimates, thesis assessment, and revised price target.

Inputs

• Company ticker and reporting period
• Existing coverage: current price target, rating, bull/base/bear scenarios
• Mode: update (post-release) or preview (pre-release)

Earnings Update Workflow (post-release, 8-12 pages)

Step 1 — Beat/miss summary

Call fmp_earnings — compare actual EPS, revenue vs consensus estimates:

• Magnitude of surprise: % beat/miss on revenue and EPS
• Quality of beat: operating vs below-the-line items (tax rate benefit, share buybacks)
• Headline vs adjusted: confirm which metric management highlighted

Step 2 — Guidance revision impact

Call fmp_analyst_estimates — pull forward estimates and compare to prior guidance:

• Revenue guide: raised / maintained / lowered vs street
• Margin commentary: input cost trends, pricing power, product mix shift
• Quantify the guidance delta vs prior-period guide and vs street consensus

Step 3 — Updated estimates

Revise revenue, EBITDA, and EPS forecasts:

• Show old vs new estimates side-by-side with change rationale
• Flow through to updated three_statement_model if revision is material (>5% change in any year)
• Update dcf_model inputs with revised projections

Step 4 — Thesis impact assessment

Does this quarter change the bull/base/bear framework?

• Thesis confirming: results in-line or better — maintain rating; note supporting data points
• Thesis challenging: negative surprise on a key driver — reassess case weights
• Thesis breaking: core assumption proven wrong — trigger downgrade review

Document which scenario's probability weight changes and by how much.

Step 5 — Price target update

Call target_price with revised inputs:

• Updated DCF value from dcf_model
• Updated comps implied value from comps_analysis
• Revised blended target
• Updated sensitivity_matrix: WACC ±100bps vs TGR ±50bps

Report structure (8-12 pages)

1. Headline (rating, old vs new PT, recommendation)
2. Quarterly results summary (beat/miss table)
3. Key themes from the quarter (3-5 bullets)
4. Estimate revision table (old vs new by year)
5. Thesis assessment (confirming / challenging / breaking)
6. Updated valuation summary
7. Updated sensitivity tables
8. Risk factors (unchanged or updated)

Earnings Preview Workflow (pre-release, 3-5 pages)

Step 1 — Consensus expectations

Call fmp_analyst_estimates — current street estimates for revenue, EPS, key segment metrics:

• Consensus revenue, EBITDA, EPS for the upcoming quarter
• Implied growth rates vs prior-year quarter
• Estimate revision trend (up / down / stable over last 30 days)

Step 2 — Key items to watch

Identify 3-5 metrics that will drive the stock reaction:

• Margins: gross margin trajectory, SGA leverage, operating margin trend
• Guidance: forward quarter and full-year outlook — will it be raised, maintained, or lowered?
• Segment mix: growth vs mature segment contribution
• Special items: restructuring charges, M&A commentary, FX headwinds

Step 3 — Historical surprise pattern

Call fmp_earnings for last 4-8 quarters of beat/miss history:

• Directional bias: does the company consistently beat or guide conservatively?
• Typical surprise magnitude in % terms (revenue and EPS)
• Most recent surprise and stock reaction

Step 4 — Scenario analysis

Model beat/miss/inline impacts on price target using sensitivity_matrix:

• Beat scenario: estimate + 1 standard deviation; implied stock reaction and revised PT
• Miss scenario: estimate - 1 standard deviation; implied stock reaction and revised PT
• Inline scenario: numbers in-line but guidance tone drives the reaction

Report structure (3-5 pages)

1. Preview summary (what we expect, key debates)
2. Consensus expectations table
3. Key items to watch (3-5 bullets with context)
4. Historical surprise pattern summary
5. Pre-earnings scenario table (beat / inline / miss)
6. Positioning recommendation

Output format

• Update note: 8-12 pages with beat/miss table, old vs new estimate table, updated PT summary, updated sensitivity tables
• Preview note: 3-5 pages with consensus table, key items, scenario table

Quality gates

• Actuals vs consensus sourced from fmp_earnings and fmp_analyst_estimates — not manually entered
• Price target revision uses target_price and dcf_model — not narrative judgment
• Three scenarios explicitly assessed (confirming / challenging / breaking)
• Old vs new estimates shown side-by-side with change rationale
• sensitivity_matrix updated for new inputs

Related skills

• workflow-er-initiating-coverage — produces the baseline PT, rating, and scenarios updated here
• workflow-er-thesis-tracker — thesis evolution framework that tracks scenario drift across multiple earnings
• workflow-er-model-update — full model revision when the earnings change is material
• workflow-er-morning-note — same-day post-earnings brief for the trading desk