| name | Run Scenario Analysis |
| description | Stress-test strategic decisions by modeling best, worst, and likely scenarios using assumptions and risks surfaced in team discussions. Identifies trigger points for plan B and builds contingency playbooks. |
| tags | ["scenario-planning","what-if-analysis","stress-test","contingency-plan","risk-scenario","plan-b","strategic-decision","decision-modeling"] |
| dependencies | [] |
| role | Leadership & Finance |
| action | Analyze |
| connectors | ["Google Drive","Notion","Slack","HubSpot","Salesforce"] |
| author | Harmony |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| icon | sparkles |
| cover | |
| screenshots | [] |
| category | Leadership & Finance |
Purpose
Leadership teams make big bets—market expansion, pricing changes, headcount plans, product pivots—but rarely stress-test the assumptions behind them. "What if enterprise sales take 50% longer than projected?" surfaces in a pipeline review but nobody models the downstream impact on cash runway, hiring plans, and customer commitments. This skill captures the assumptions and risks discussed across meetings, builds structured best/worst/likely scenarios with financial and operational implications, and identifies the specific trigger points that should activate contingency plans. The result is a decision brief that lets leadership make bets with eyes open, knowing what could break their plan and what to do when it does.
When to Use
- Before major strategic investment: Market expansion, new product line, geographic launch, or acquisition offer
- Annual or quarterly planning: Lock in realistic scenario ranges before committing to targets
- When a key assumption changes: Lost a major customer, competitor launched unexpectedly, hiring market dried up, or regulatory environment shifted
- Before board presentation: Anticipate investor "what if" questions and show you've thought through downside
- Hiring plan stress-testing: Model cash impact if ramp-down is needed; identify where headcount cuts hurt most
- Pricing or packaging change evaluation: Stress-test churn assumptions, upsell velocity, and runway impact
Instructions
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Extract assumptions from recent leadership discussions: Identify the 3–5 core assumptions driving your decision (sales targets, hiring timelines, customer adoption rates, market timing, competitive dynamics, retention assumptions). Source them: "In the Feb pipeline review, you said 60% conversion by Q3. In the board prep call, you mentioned 14-month enterprise sales cycle as a risk. In Slack, you noted we might lose 2 key hires to startup offers." List each assumption, its source, and the date.
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Identify the decision being stress-tested and its key variables: What is the bet? "Expand into European market." What are the top 3 variables that make or break it? (Enterprise sales cycle length, regulatory approval timeline, hiring velocity for London office.) What is the default plan if all goes well?
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Build three scenarios:
- Best Case: Optimistic but plausible. Everything breaks your way but not magic-wand unlikely. (4-month sales cycle, fast regulatory approval, hire team 20% faster than expected.)
- Base Case: Most likely given current trajectory and historical data. (9-month sales cycle, standard regulatory timeline, hire to plan with 1–2 slips.)
