meta-roi-framework

name	meta-roi-framework
description	Use when calculating campaign or channel return from attributable value and acquisition cost. Produces ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis; use `meta-social-media-roi-business-case` when that neighbouring contract is the closer match.
metadata	{"portable":true,"compatible_with":["claude-code","codex"]}

ROI Framework

Use When

• Use this skill for calculating campaign or channel return from attributable value and acquisition cost.
• Confirm that meta-social-media-roi-business-case is not the closer route before proceeding.

Do Not Use When

• Use meta-social-media-roi-business-case when its narrower output is requested.
• Do not publish, spend, change a live account, certify compliance, or invent missing client evidence.

Required Inputs

Artefact	Source/provider	Required?	If absent
Attributable revenue or lifetime value, complete costs and attribution method	Client, approved systems, or dated platform exports	Yes	Stop the affected decision; request it or mark the field unknown and narrow the output.
Purpose, audience and approval boundary	Client brief or accountable owner	Yes	Return discovery questions; do not infer approval.

Outputs

Artefact	Consumer	Acceptance condition
Roi model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis	Client lead and next workflow owner	Every recommendation traces to an input, names an owner or next action, and marks assumptions and unassessed checks.

Evidence Produced

Evidence	Format	Acceptance condition
Decision and source register	Table in the deliverable	Each material claim records its source/date or is labelled unverified; missing evidence never becomes a pass.

Capability and permission boundary

Read and search access to the supplied artefacts are required; calculation or file-rendering capability is optional. Planning and drafting are read-only with respect to client accounts and source records. Editing the deliverable requires explicit authorisation; publishing, production mutation, destructive action, spend, and certification claims require separate explicit authority and evidence.

Degraded mode

If files, platform access, network, rendering, fonts, or calculation tools are unavailable, return the narrowest useful qualified ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis. Mark each blocked check not assessed, state the consequence, and provide the exact evidence needed to resume. Never convert an unavailable check into a pass.

Decision rules

Choice	Action	Failure or risk avoided
Attributable revenue or lifetime value, complete costs and attribution method is current and attributable	Produce the full ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis and cite the evidence used.	Decisions based on stale or unrelated evidence.
A material input is missing or contradictory	Stop that decision, request clarification, or issue a labelled partial result.	Fabricated precision and false confidence.
The requested outcome belongs to meta-social-media-roi-business-case	Route there and hand over the verified inputs already collected.	Neighbour collision and duplicated work.

Workflow

1. Confirm the requested decision, consumer, market, period and permission boundary; route to meta-social-media-roi-business-case if its contract is closer.
2. Inventory the required inputs and their provenance. Stop any decision whose critical evidence is absent; recover by requesting it or recording a bounded assumption.
3. Apply the domain method in the core sections below, following the decision table whenever evidence conflicts or scope changes.
4. Verify calculations, dates, named platforms and claims against the supplied sources; label inference and uncertainty.
5. Produce the ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis, decision/source register and explicit next owner. Do not mutate live systems without separate authority.
6. Run the repository anti-slop ship gate. If a blocking factual, permission or evidence defect remains, fix it or withhold release.

Quality Standards

The output is client-specific, uses British English and the stated market/currency, distinguishes observed fact from inference, exposes gaps, and gives a checkable acceptance condition. Recommendations must be feasible within the confirmed budget, capacity and permissions.

Anti-Patterns

• Using an undated benchmark as the client's result. Fix: use account evidence or label the benchmark as a provisional comparator.
• Producing the ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis without attributable revenue or lifetime value. Fix: stop the affected decision or issue a clearly bounded partial output.
• Treating missing access or data as a successful check. Fix: record not assessed, its risk and the recovery input.
• Absorbing meta-social-media-roi-business-case into this workflow. Fix: route the neighbouring output and hand over verified inputs.
• Publishing, spending or editing a live account during planning or review. Fix: obtain separate explicit authority and retain action evidence.

Worked example

Given verified attributable revenue or lifetime value, the skill produces a ROI model with assumptions, attribution limits and break-even analysis with source dates and named assumptions. If that evidence cannot be accessed, it returns only the supported sections plus a recovery list; it does not fill gaps with East African defaults.

Read next

• meta-social-media-roi-business-case for the neighbouring contract.
• anti-ai-slop during production.
• ai-slop-audit at the release checkpoint.

References

• Anti-AI slop production gate
• Measurement proof pack
• Follow the directly linked repository skills above and any domain references named in the core sections below. Verify current platform, price, legal and regulatory claims before use.

Required Input

Before generating the ROI analysis, collect the following from the consultant:

• Client name and trading name (if different)
• Industry and sub-sector
• Country / city (default: Uganda / Kampala)
• Primary goal (e.g., grow customer base, increase revenue, justify retainer renewal)
• Currency (UGX or USD — use the client's primary operating currency throughout)
• Average transaction value (what the average customer spends per transaction)
• Average number of transactions per year per customer (how often a typical customer buys)
• Average customer relationship length in years (how long a typical customer remains a customer)
• Monthly social media investment:
  • Consultant / agency retainer fee
  • Content production costs (photography, video, copywriting if outsourced)
  • Paid ad spend (monthly average)
  • Total monthly investment
• New customers acquired per month via digital channels (estimated; ask the client to check CRM records or enquiry logs — even a rough estimate is useful)
• Gross margin % (revenue minus direct costs, expressed as a percentage of revenue)
• Any available channel attribution data (e.g., "20 enquiries last month came via WhatsApp, 5 via Facebook DM")

If the client cannot provide exact figures, ask for a reasonable estimate and document all assumptions in the output.

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Output Structure

Generate all seven sections below in order.

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1. Total Lifetime Value (TLV) Calculation

Apply the formula from Bodnar and Cohen (2012):

TLV = Average transaction value × Transactions per year × Customer relationship length (years)

Walk through the calculation step by step:

Input	Client value
Average transaction value	[Currency] [Amount]
Average transactions per year per customer	[Number]
Average customer relationship length	[Number] years
Total Lifetime Value (TLV)	[Currency] [Amount]

Worked example (Uganda context): A Kampala accounting firm charges UGX 1,200,000 per quarterly filing per client. The average client files 4 times per year and stays for 3 years. TLV = UGX 1,200,000 × 4 × 3 = UGX 14,400,000

Produce the same worked example using the client's actual figures.

Note: If the client serves both high-value and low-value customer segments, calculate TLV separately for each segment. Use the segment most relevant to the digital acquisition strategy as the primary figure.

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2. Cost of Customer Acquisition (COCA) by Channel

Apply the formula:

COCA = Monthly social media spend ÷ New customers acquired per month via that channel

Channel	Monthly spend allocated	New customers/month	COCA
Facebook (organic + ads)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]
Instagram (organic + ads)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]
WhatsApp (broadcast + referral)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]
LinkedIn (if applicable)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]
TikTok (if applicable)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]
Total (all channels combined)	[Currency] [Amount]	[Number]	[Currency] [Amount]

Where channel-level attribution is not available: Use total monthly investment ÷ total new customers from digital channels as the blended COCA. Note this as an estimate in the output and recommend the client implement enquiry source tracking (see Section 4).

Where new customer numbers are unknown: Use enquiry volume as a proxy (COCA per enquiry) and apply the client's conversion rate to estimate COCA per customer. State all assumptions clearly.

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The CAC Cap Rule (Kahan, 2022): Customer Acquisition Cost must not exceed 25% of average Customer Lifetime Value. Formula: CAC ≤ (CLV × 0.25). Apply this as the budget governance ceiling when presenting investment recommendations to clients or boards. If the current CAC exceeds 25% of CLV, the programme is structurally unprofitable regardless of gross revenue.

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3. COCA:TLV Ratio Interpretation

Calculate the ratio: TLV ÷ COCA

Metric	Value
TLV	[Currency] [Amount]
COCA	[Currency] [Amount]
TLV:COCA ratio	[X]:1

Benchmark interpretation:

Ratio	Interpretation	Action
10:1 or above	Excellent — significant return on acquisition spend	Increase investment in what is working; scale the best-performing channel
5:1 to 9:1	Healthy and sustainable	Maintain current approach; optimise underperforming channels
3:1 to 4:1	Borderline viable — monitor closely	Identify the highest-COCA channel and reduce spend there; focus on conversion rate improvement
Below 3:1	Acquisition cost is too high relative to customer value	Either grow TLV (raise prices, add upsell, increase retention) or reduce COCA (better targeting, improved conversion funnel)

State clearly where the client sits and what this means for the retainer decision.

If TLV cannot be calculated (e.g., the client cannot estimate relationship length): Use a conservative single-transaction value as TLV and note this understates the true return. Recommend the client track customer retention data.

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Bottom-Up Revenue Modelling

Supplement the top-down ROI formula with a bottom-up model that works backwards from a revenue target through funnel conversion rates to required inquiry volumes (Kahan, 2022). This produces more defensible budget recommendations than working forwards from spend.

Step 1: State the quarterly revenue target in UGX. Step 2: Divide by average deal size → number of new clients needed. Step 3: Divide by opportunity-to-deal CVR (benchmark: 40%) → opportunities needed. Step 4: Divide by lead-to-opportunity CVR (benchmark: 25%) → qualified leads needed. Step 5: Divide by inquiry-to-lead CVR (benchmark: 3%) → total inquiries needed. Step 6: Allocate required inquiries by channel based on historical contribution or targets.

Reference meta-revenue-planning for the full worked example.

Pipeline Stage Weighting (Kahan, 2022): For quarterly revenue forecasting, weight pipeline opportunities by stage rather than counting all pipeline at full value.

• Open Opportunity: 10%
• Active Project: 30%
• Shortlist: 60%
• Forecast: 85%
• Close Win: 100%

Weighted pipeline = more realistic forecast than unweighted pipeline total.

Deal Velocity as an ROI Component: Faster conversion reduces the time-cost of capital and increases revenue per quarter at the same spend. Measure and report velocity in days at each funnel stage: inquiry-to-lead, lead-to-opportunity, opportunity-to-deal, and end-to-end. Include velocity targets in the ROI framework — they are as important as the cost targets (Kahan, 2022).

CLV by Acquisition Cohort (Zahay et al., 2024; Raaz, c.2023): Replace single-average CLV with cohort-based LTV calculation. Calculate CLV separately for customers acquired through each channel — organic social, paid social, referral, email, events. This reveals which channels produce durable, high-value customers vs. one-transaction buyers. Note the benchmark: average repeat customers spend 67% more in months 31–36 than in months 1–6 — a data point that consistently justifies retention investment over acquisition-only strategies.

Attribution Model Note: ROI calculations depend on how revenue is attributed to channels. Select an attribution model before the campaign begins, not after. See 06-digital-marketing-strategy references section for the full six-model attribution selection guide (Hanlon and Tuten, 2022). Apply the chosen model consistently across the full strategy period before switching.

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4. Attribution Methodology

For service businesses and B2B clients where direct digital attribution is difficult, implement the following tracking approach:

Step 1 — Enquiry source logging Ask the client to record where every new enquiry comes from. Log the following for every new enquiry:

Field	Options
Enquiry date	DD/MM/YYYY
Enquiry channel	WhatsApp / Facebook DM / Instagram DM / Phone call / Walk-in / Website form / Referral / Other
Referral source (if applicable)	Which social content, post, or profile triggered the referral
Converted to sale?	Yes / No / Pending

Review this log monthly as part of the reporting cycle.

Step 2 — UTM link tracking Place UTM-tagged links in all social media bios and any posts that direct traffic to the website. Use Google Analytics (free) to see which platform and which specific posts drive website visits and form submissions. UTM parameters: source, medium, campaign, content.

Step 3 — Monthly enquiry source report Each month, count enquiries by source. This becomes the input for COCA calculation and shows directional channel performance.

Important caveat: Attribution is never perfect for social media. Social content influences purchasing decisions that are tracked to other channels (e.g., a customer sees an Instagram post, then calls the business directly). The goal of this methodology is directional understanding — not accounting-level precision.

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5. Break-Even Analysis for Content Investment

Calculate how many new customers per month are needed to cover the social media investment:

Break-even customers = Monthly investment ÷ (TLV × Gross margin %)

Input	Value
Monthly social media investment	[Currency] [Amount]
TLV	[Currency] [Amount]
Gross margin %	[%]
TLV × Gross margin	[Currency] [Amount]
Break-even customers per month	[Number — round up]

Worked example (Uganda context): A Kampala interior design firm invests UGX 3,500,000 per month in social media (retainer + production). TLV per client is UGX 12,000,000. Gross margin is 35%.

Break-even = UGX 3,500,000 ÷ (UGX 12,000,000 × 35%) = UGX 3,500,000 ÷ UGX 4,200,000 = 0.83 → 1 new client per month breaks even

Produce the same calculation using the client's actual figures. Frame the result in plain language: "If social media brings in just [X] new customers per month, the investment pays for itself."

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6. 12-Month ROI Projection Table

Build a monthly projection using a conservative new customer estimate (use the current monthly average, or the break-even number if current data is unavailable).

Month	Projected new customers from social	COCA (est.)	TLV per customer	Monthly ROI	Cumulative ROI
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
Total					[Cumulative ROI]

Monthly ROI formula: (TLV × customers acquired − Monthly investment) ÷ Monthly investment × 100

Note: These projections are estimates based on current trends. Revisit and update this table quarterly using actual customer acquisition data.

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7. Talking Points for the Consultant

Use these points when presenting the ROI analysis to the client:

Framing the retainer fee Do not present the retainer as a standalone cost. Present it relative to TLV: "Our monthly investment of [amount] needs to bring in [break-even number] new customers to pay for itself. Based on current enquiry volumes, we are [above / at / approaching] that threshold."

The break-even argument "You do not need social media to bring in all your customers — only enough to justify the investment. At your TLV of [amount] and a gross margin of [%], you need [X] new customers per month from digital channels. We are currently tracking [Y] enquiries per month from social media."

Comparison to traditional marketing If data allows, compare COCA via social media to the client's cost per referral via traditional marketing (events, print advertising, sales calls). Social media at scale often has a lower COCA than traditional methods — use this comparison if the numbers support it.

When COCA is above the benchmark Do not deflect. Acknowledge it and recommend the specific action: "Our COCA is currently above the 5:1 benchmark. The most effective action is [grow TLV with a loyalty programme / improve our conversion rate from enquiry to sale / reduce ad spend on [underperforming channel] and reallocate to [higher-performing channel]]."

Long-term framing Social media builds brand equity that is not captured in COCA. Organic reach, follower growth, and content library value compound over time. The ROI calculation covers direct acquisition — the full picture includes brand value that is harder to quantify but real.

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FRAT — Customer List Prioritisation Formula

Hahn (2003)

When a client has a customer database and needs to prioritise who to contact first (for a campaign, a renewal, or a direct mail programme), apply FRAT scoring:

Letter	Factor	Question
F	Frequency	How many times has this contact bought or enquired?
R	Recency	How recently did they last buy or enquire?
A	Amount	What is their average transaction value?
T	Type	What type of product or service do they purchase?

Score each contact on all four criteria (1–5 per factor). Sort by total score descending. The highest-scoring contacts are the most responsive and should be contacted first, most often, and with the most effort.

The $20 Rule — Campaign Budget Viability Test

Hahn (2003)

Before committing to any direct marketing campaign (email, direct mail, WhatsApp broadcast), check budget viability:

For every UGX 20,000 (or equivalent USD $20) of projected revenue per transaction, the campaign can afford to invest UGX 1,000 (or USD $1) per contact reached.

Examples:

• Projected transaction value: UGX 200,000 → affordable spend per contact: UGX 10,000
• Projected transaction value: UGX 1,000,000 → affordable spend per contact: UGX 50,000

Use this to guide format decisions and campaign feasibility before recommending any outbound activity.

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Quality Criteria

Output meets the standard if it:

• Uses the correct Bodnar and Cohen (2012) formula: ROI = (TLV − COCA) ÷ COCA
• All calculations are shown step by step with the client's actual figures — not only the final result
• COCA is calculated per channel where attribution data exists; blended COCA is used and labelled as an estimate where it does not
• Ratio interpretation names the specific action required at the client's ratio level — not generic advice
• Attribution methodology section gives the client a practical tracking system to implement, not a conceptual explanation
• Break-even calculation is expressed in plain language the client can use in a conversation
• 12-month projection table is populated with the client's figures and includes a clear caveat about projection assumptions
• Talking points are specific to the client's ratio and figures — not a generic script
• All currency figures use the client's specified currency (default UGX for Uganda)

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Framework Reference

Apply the ROI formula (Bodnar and Cohen, 2012): ROI = (TLV − COCA) ÷ COCA. Apply the POEM model when attributing spend across paid, owned, and earned channels.

Bodnar, K. and Cohen, J. (2012) The B2B Social Media Book. Hoboken: Wiley. Chaffey, D. (2024) Digital Marketing: Strategy, Implementation and Practice. 8th edn. Harlow: Pearson.