tako-macroeconomics

name	tako-macroeconomics
description	Macroeconomic and demographic indicators via Tako (sources vary — FRED, BLS, OECD, BIS, IMF, World Bank, Census). Inflation (CPI/PCE), unemployment, GDP, interest and policy rates, population, and cross-country comparisons as citation-backed charts. Use for macro monitoring, economic briefings, or any "what is/was <country>'s <indicator>" question.

Macroeconomics (Tako)

Tako serves macro indicators as interactive, citation-backed charts. All tools below live on the Tako MCP server (server name tako).

What's in range

• Prices: CPI (headline, core, seasonally adjusted and not), PCE price indices, country inflation rates.
• Labor: unemployment (headline, U-6, harmonised), employment measures.
• Output and rates: nominal and real GDP, GDP growth, policy and market interest rates.
• Demographics: population, population by age band, median age (Census, World Bank). These sit naturally in this skill's scope; don't send them elsewhere.
• Prediction markets: Polymarket contracts on macro outcomes are in the graph ("Polymarket odds Fed rate cut 2026" returns "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?"). Useful when the question is genuinely about expectations, and a trap otherwise, see below.

Coverage is country-keyed. Individual countries resolve well (US, China, Japan, India). Multi-country blocs are weak: "Eurozone inflation rate" returns a Polymarket contract instead of an indicator, and "Euro area CPI inflation rate" returns nothing at all. For a bloc, query member countries and aggregate yourself, or take the figure from the web results and say so.

Pick the tool

• tako_answer: the default for any " " question. Returns the value in prose with its cited chart and rows attached, so one priced call finishes the job. Relay the answer verbatim.
• tako_search: reach for it when you want breadth or a chart rather than a number, e.g. scanning several countries or indicator variants to see what exists, or pulling the card when the chart is the deliverable. FRED/OECD/BIS cards do export, so search is more useful here than in the licensed-data skills, but it still costs a round trip to turn a card into a figure.
• tako_available_data: FREE, and the right tool when the question is what Tako covers, or when many variants exist and you need the exact indicator name (mandatory for PCE — see below).
• Cohort/ranking asks ("which G7 economy has the highest inflation right now?") → one narrow call per country in parallel, then rank. Use tako_search if you only need to see what exists, tako_answer when you need each figure.

Query patterns (Critical)

• Query is COUNTRY + INDICATOR: "US CPI inflation", "US unemployment rate", "US federal funds rate" (which resolves to the Effective Federal Funds Rate, not the FOMC target range).
• Be specific — most indicators have many variants, and they carry materially different numbers. "US unemployment rate" returns BLS headline (4.2%), IMF (4.3%), OECD harmonised (4.2%), and U-6 (7.9%) together. Name the variant when intent is precise; run tako_available_data first when it isn't.
• PCE is the sharpest naming trap: "US core PCE inflation" silently returns a Core CPI card. Query the year-over-year variant by name instead — "US core PCE price index % change" returns the correct "Core PCE Price Index (% Change)" card. Verify the chosen card's title actually says PCE and (% Change); a plain "PCE Price Index" card is an index level (~130 points), not a rate. Run tako_available_data FIRST here.
• Parallelize multi-part asks: send each metric as its own narrow concurrent tako_search, then synthesize — not one query.
• Cross-country comparison is built in: "US vs China inflation" returns a 2-series comparison card. For currency-denominated indicators (GDP, wages), a cross-country chart may plot different currencies on one axis unnormalized. State each series' currency and convert before comparing.
• sources: default to BOTH ["data", "web"] (also the tool's default when omitted). The chart grounds the number, web results add the release commentary and context that make a briefing readable, and web is the built-in fallback when Tako lacks the indicator, including the bloc-level gaps above. Price is identical either way. Narrow to ["data"] only when coverage is already confirmed (tako_available_data, pinned node_ids) or in a parallel fan-out where per-call web results would swamp context.
• Empty result (zero cards): do NOT reword and retry blind; every search is billed. Recover in order: (1) tako_available_data (free) for the exact indicator name; (2) if covered, ONE more search using that exact name and NO node_ids — the canonical NAME is what recovers cards; a pin is a hard filter and returned FEWER cards than the same query unpinned on 11 of 20 pairs measured, because the graph holds near-duplicate metric nodes where only one twin carries cards; (3) if not covered, stop searching Tako and answer from the web results already in the response. Never more than 2 priced searches per underlying question (in a fan-out, each country+indicator query has its own budget). Pin a METRIC with only to disambiguate when an unpinned retry returned the wrong near-duplicate indicator — and if a pinned call comes back empty, drop the pin rather than concluding Tako has no data.

Reading a result

Every card carries a title, a description holding the headline value, and retrieval facts: whether it is exportable, its relevance, its card type, its as-of date, its nodes (the graph entities and metrics it was built from), its source name, and its chart/embed URLs.

Field names depend on the response format, so the checks below name the concept and you read whichever your response carries. A markdown response prints them on a facts line (exportable · relevance · type · freshness · nodes · source · chart · embed); a JSON response uses exportable, relevance, card_type, data_freshness.data_as_of, nodes, sources[].source_name, webpage_url and embed_url.

Pick the right card (Critical)

Tako auto-renders #0, and for macro the least-specific or stalest card often ranks first. the relevance fact is unreliable: the correct card is frequently tagged Low. If the right card isn't #0, reference it by linking its title to the card's chart URL and say it is the authoritative one. Check, in order:

1. Right variant? "US CPI inflation" returns three different headline numbers at once — a BIS country card (4.2%), a FRED "Inflation Rate" series (2.9%), and FRED "CPI Inflation Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)" (3.5%). Pick the card whose title matches the variant asked for; don't average them or take whichever is first.
2. Fresh, not a stale vintage? Stale series rank high routinely: that FRED "Inflation Rate" card at #1 ends in Jan 2024, and "US federal funds rate" ranks "Fed Funds Target Rate (Historical)", a series that ends in Dec 2008, above the current one. Compare as-of dates across cards and take the freshest match. Freshness also varies by series: Core CPI runs to Jun 2026 while Core PCE stops at Jan 2026, so don't present them as the same vintage.
3. Rate, not an index level? A (% Change) card is a rate in percent; a bare "Price Index" card is index points. Confirm from the units in description.
4. An indicator, not a prediction market? A Polymarket card answers "what do traders expect," not "what was reported." "Eurozone inflation rate" returns exactly this. Only use one when the question is about expectations, and label it as market-implied odds.
5. Right country? Confirm the card's nodes names it. Country overview cards (type card) sometimes carry no nodes at all — fall back to reading the title.

Rendering

• On a comparison card, the as-of date is the QUERY date, not the data date (the US-vs-China card reported the day it was run while its latest point is May 2026). Cite the period from the card's description, not that fact.
• Cite the card's source name and as-of date. The roster is wider than FRED alone: BIS, OECD, IMF, World Bank, BLS, Census and Polymarket all appear, and the same indicator arrives from different providers on different cards. Never cite from a fixed list.
• Reference the chart in prose; do NOT re-post the card's image URL as a markdown image — that double-renders the inline chart.

Examples

• Single (the common case) → tako_answer {"query": "What is the current US CPI inflation rate?", "sources": ["data", "web"]} → check the cited card matches the variant asked for
• Cross-country → tako_answer {"query": "How does US inflation compare with China's?", "sources": ["data", "web"]}
• Chart is the deliverable → tako_search {"query": "US vs China inflation", "sources": ["data", "web"]} → embed the card
• Indicator-name question (free; note the arg is q) → tako_available_data {"q": "US core PCE"} → then pin the exact name: tako_answer {"query": "US core PCE price index % change", "sources": ["data"]}
• Parallel multi-metric → four calls for CPI, core CPI, core PCE (% change) and PCE (% change); tako_search with "sources": ["data"] to see what exists, tako_answer per metric when you need the values (take the "(% Change)" cards; plain "PCE Price Index" cards are index levels)
• Bloc-level ask → no Eurozone card exists; query member countries in parallel and aggregate, or take the figure from the web citations and label it web-sourced

Output (tight and structured)

1. A 1–2 line read of the indicator, referencing the intent-matched chart
2. Source name — as-of date, and say so plainly when a figure came from the web rather than a card
3. A single [Open in Tako] link built from the card's embed URL, for the card you embedded