| name | competing-hypothesis-generation |
| description | SOP: Generate mechanistically distinct competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | hypothesis-formation |
| type | sop |
| campaign | hypothesis-formulation |
| input | Phenomenon description + primary hypothesis (from upstream output) |
| output | Competing hypothesis list (mechanistically distinct, not variants of the primary hypothesis) |
| dependencies | {"skills":["subagent-spawning"]} |
Competing Hypothesis Generation
Generate genuinely distinct competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon to guard against confirmation bias and keep explanations open.
HARD-GATE
Preconditions (all must hold before starting):
1. At least 1 primary hypothesis is available (with statement + mechanism)
2. A phenomenon description is provided (the phenomenon the primary hypothesis attempts to explain)
Not satisfied → stop and return error: primary hypothesis and phenomenon description required.
Pipeline
- Precondition check: verify completeness of the primary hypothesis and phenomenon description
- Alternative mechanism search: look for different causal mechanisms that can explain the same phenomenon
- Alternative theory application: derive predictions about the same phenomenon from different theoretical frameworks
- Reverse reasoning: consider explanations with the opposite causal direction
- Deduplication: ensure each competing hypothesis is mechanistically distinct from the primary hypothesis and from the other competing hypotheses
- Output competing hypothesis list
Output Format
[
{
"hypothesis_id": "CH1",
"statement": "Competing hypothesis statement",
"mechanism": "Different causal mechanism from the primary hypothesis",
"theoretical_basis": "Theory or reasoning supporting this alternative",
"key_difference": "How this differs mechanistically from the primary hypothesis",
"shared_prediction": "Prediction shared with primary hypothesis (makes discrimination hard)",
"unique_prediction":
