| name | progress-curve-fitting |
| description | Construct performance-over-time visualization data |
| execution | subagent |
| prompt | ./prompt.md |
| input | historical_scores (method, score, date) |
Progress Curve Fitting
Purpose
Fit parametric curves to historical SOTA performance data, identify inflection points representing paradigm shifts, and extrapolate future progress trajectories. Produces structured data suitable for visualization and trend analysis.
Input Schema
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|
| historical_scores | object[] | Array of {method, score, date, dataset, metric} sorted chronologically |
Output Schema
{
"dataset": "string",
"metric": "string",
"time_range": {"start": "string", "end": "string"},
"sota_frontier": [
{"date": "string", "method": "string", "score": 0.0, "is_new_sota": true}
],
"curve_fit": {
"best_model": "logarithmic|linear|sigmoid|exponential|piecewise",
"parameters": {},
"r_squared": 0.0,
"residual_std": 0.0
},
"inflection_points": [
{
"date": "string",
"method": "string",
"score_before": 0.0,
"score_after": 0.0,
"jump_magnitude": 0.0,
"paradigm_shift": "string"
}
],
"trend_metrics": {
"annual_improvement_rate": 0.0,
"improvement_accelerating": false,
"years_since_last_major_jump": 0.0,
"current_plateau_duration": null
},
"extrapolation": {
"predicted_1yr": 0.0,
"predicted_3yr": 0.0,
"confidence_band_1yr": [0.0, 0.0],
"confidence_band_3yr": [0.0, 0.0],
"caveat": "string"
}
}