prospective-hindsight

name	prospective-hindsight
description	Strategy: Klein pre-mortem — assume the artifact has failed, then retrospect plausible causes. Generates rapid failure scenario catalog.
type	strategy
tactics	["premortem-to-fmea-pipeline","failure-chain-tracing"]
dependencies	{"tactics":["failure-chain-tracing","premortem-to-fmea-pipeline"],"sops":["failure-mode-extraction","premortem-facilitation","severity-scoring"]}

Prospective Hindsight Strategy

Assume the artifact has already failed. Retrospect: what went wrong?

Method

1. premortem-facilitation frames the failure assumption
2. Each participant generates independent failure scenarios
3. failure-mode-extraction structures raw scenarios into failure mode list
4. Scenarios are ranked by plausibility and severity
5. High-risk items feed into FMEA pipeline (premortem-to-fmea-pipeline tactic)

Budget Table

Parameter	S	M	L
Failure scenarios generated	8	20	40
Independent perspectives	2	4	6
Screening threshold (severity)	7	5	3

Orchestration

premortem-facilitation → failure-mode-extraction
  → severity-scoring (rapid screen)
  → [high-severity items] → premortem-to-fmea-pipeline

Subagents

• premortem-facilitation (execute Klein protocol)
• failure-mode-extraction (structure scenarios)
• severity-scoring (rapid severity screen)

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
failure-chain-tracing	Tactic: Trace upstream causes and downstream effects of each failure mode. Builds multi-level cause-mode-effect chains for systemic understanding.
premortem-to-fmea-pipeline	Tactic: Pre-mortem rapid screening feeds high-risk items into full FMEA analysis. Bridges fast intuitive generation with systematic structured analysis.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
failure-mode-extraction	Extract structured failure mode list from raw scenarios or artifact analysis. Produces standardized failure mode records.
premortem-facilitation	Execute Klein pre-mortem protocol — assume failure has occurred, generate plausible failure scenarios through prospective hindsight.
severity-scoring	Rate failure mode severity 1-10 based on end-effect impact. Follows AIAG-VDA severity scale calibrated for research artifacts.