| name | ueai-result-interpret |
| description | Translate model output (tables, figures, log files) into undergrad-readable economic interpretation. Triggers at stage 03 or /ueai-stage 03. |
Result interpretation (stage 03)
What you read
Whatever the student attached to evidence/results/. Common artefacts:
| File | What's in it |
|---|
tariffshock.sl4 viewed via ViewSOL | percentage changes in macro vars (qgdp, EV, qxw, pxw, ...) by region & sector |
tab1_did.tex / .csv from esttab | regression table (coeff, se, R²) |
fig1_decomp.png | welfare decomposition bar chart |
| log files | run-time messages |
What you produce
A filled 03_results/result_interpretation.md with:
- 关键数值 — pull 3–6 numbers verbatim from outputs with citation marker
[来源: evidence/results/xxx].
- 方向 / 量级 / 经济含义 — for each number give all three.
- 部门差异 / 异质性 — name top + bottom 3 sectors / groups.
- 稳健性边界 — when does the result flip / weaken? (sample, specification, shock size).
- 与文献的对话 — 1–2 sentences placing the magnitude relative to existing literature, e.g. "Caliendo & Parro (2015) 报告 0.4% 的福利损失，我们的 0.7% 在合理范围"。
Interpretation discipline
- Never state a percentage without sign and unit. "GDP 下降 0.3 个百分点" not "GDP -0.3".
- Always cite. Every number needs
[来源: evidence/results/<file>].
- Distinguish 方向 (sign) / 量级 (magnitude relative to GDP, exports, etc.) / 经济含义 (which agent loses, through what channel).
- For regression: coefficient + significance + cluster-robust SE + economic-magnitude line ("一个标准差的提升对应 Y 增加 X%").
Output template
# 结果解释
项目题目：{{TOPIC}}
对应课程：{{COURSE}}
研究问题：{{QUESTION}}
## 本阶段任务
把表格、图形和模型输出转化为经济学解释。
## AI辅助记录
- 使用时间：...
- 使用工具：...
- 使用提示词：prompts/result-interpret.md
### 关键数值
- 中国 GDP 量价分解中 `qgdp` 变动 **-0.34%** [来源: evidence/results/sl4_qgdp.csv]
- 中国 EV（等价变差）**-32.1 亿美元 (2017 基价)** [来源: evidence/results/sl4_ev.csv]
- 电子部门出口 `qxw("Electronics","China")` **-12.7%** [来源: evidence/results/sl4_qxw.csv]
### 方向 / 量级 / 经济含义
- GDP 下降方向符合理论预期；量级在 Caliendo–Parro 量级带内。
- EV 损失主要由出口部门福利下降驱动。
- 电子部门冲击最大；钢铁次之；服务业受益（贸易转移效应）。
### 异质性
- 受损前三部门：Electronics, Steel, Machinery
- 受益前三部门：Services, Agriculture, Light manufacturing
### 稳健性边界
- 关税幅度由 25pp 改为 10pp 时，GDP 影响缩为约 -0.13%。
- 取消关税收入回家庭的假设，福利损失扩大约 18%。
- HS 章节扩展到 84+85+73+76，结果增量小于 5%。
### 与文献对照
- Caliendo & Parro (2015) 报告 NAFTA 反事实福利变动约 0.08%–0.45%；本研究 0.34% 在合理量级。
## 人工核验与修改
- 数据来源或课程材料核验：
- 教师要求对照：
- 人工修改说明：
## 本阶段产出
- 提交文件：03_results/result_interpretation.md
- 表/图文件位置：evidence/results/
What you DO NOT do
- Do not invent numbers if the student hasn't attached outputs. Instead, fill a TODO row and prompt the student to attach
evidence/results/<filename>.
- Do not write policy recommendations here — those go in stage 04 (writing).
- Do not exceed 3 decimal places for course-level results.
