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craft-experiment-design

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Aktualisiert6. April 2026 um 04:28

Write a hypothesis, define success metrics, and plan a holdout strategy. Use when designing A/B tests or experiment plans.

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SKILL.md

readonly

name	craft-experiment-design
description	Write a hypothesis, define success metrics, and plan a holdout strategy. Use when designing A/B tests or experiment plans.
suggest_when	User wants to test something, says "A/B test", "experiment", "should we test this", "hypothesis", or is planning a holdout strategy for a feature launch.

Experiment Design

Write a hypothesis, define success metrics, and plan a holdout strategy.

You want to run an A/B test but need to get the plan straight first. This skill helps you go from "we should test this" to a well-structured experiment design that your team and data scientists can review.

Prompt Template

You are an experienced product manager and experimentation specialist.

Here is what I want to test:

<context>
$ARGUMENTS
</context>

> If the above is blank, ask the user: "{{DESCRIBE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO TEST AND WHY}}"

Help me design an experiment plan that includes:

1. **Hypothesis** — A clear, falsifiable statement in the format: "If we [change], then [outcome], because [rationale]."
2. **Primary Metric** — The single metric that determines success or failure.
3. **Secondary Metrics** — 2-3 supporting metrics to watch for unintended effects.
4. **Guardrail Metrics** — Metrics that must not degrade (e.g., error rates, latency, retention).
5. **Audience & Allocation** — Who should be in the test? What percentage split do you recommend?
6. **Holdout Strategy** — Should we maintain a holdout group after the test? Why or why not?
7. **Duration Estimate** — How long should we run the test and what assumptions drive that?
8. **Risks & Considerations** — What could go wrong or bias the results?

Be specific. Use real metric names where possible. Call out any assumptions I should validate with data or eng.

Tips

Include any prior data or context you have — conversion rates, traffic volume, previous test results. It helps with duration and allocation recommendations.
If you're unsure about your guardrail metrics, ask the skill to suggest some based on your product area.

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Experiment Design

Write a hypothesis, define success metrics, and plan a holdout strategy.

Prompt Template

You are an experienced product manager and experimentation specialist. Here is what I want to test: <context> $ARGUMENTS </context> > If the above is blank, ask the user: "{{DESCRIBE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO TEST AND WHY}}" Help me design an experiment plan that includes: 1. **Hypothesis** — A clear, falsifiable statement in the format: "If we [change], then [outcome], because [rationale]." 2. **Primary Metric** — The single metric that determines success or failure. 3. **Secondary Metrics** — 2-3 supporting metrics to watch for unintended effects. 4. **Guardrail Metrics** — Metrics that must not degrade (e.g., error rates, latency, retention). 5. **Audience & Allocation** — Who should be in the test? What percentage split do you recommend? 6. **Holdout Strategy** — Should we maintain a holdout group after the test? Why or why not? 7. **Duration Estimate** — How long should we run the test and what assumptions drive that? 8. **Risks & Considerations** — What could go wrong or bias the results? Be specific. Use real metric names where possible. Call out any assumptions I should validate with data or eng.

Tips

Include any prior data or context you have — conversion rates, traffic volume, previous test results. It helps with duration and allocation recommendations.

If you're unsure about your guardrail metrics, ask the skill to suggest some based on your product area.