| name | aex - Assumption Extraction |
| description | Extract hidden assumptions from any content. Surfaces what must be true for claims to hold, enabling deeper analysis. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
Assumption Extraction
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Interpretations
Before executing, identify which interpretation matches the user's input:
Interpretation 1 — Find hidden assumptions in a plan or argument: The user has a strategy, proposal, or claim and wants to surface the unstated beliefs it depends on.
Interpretation 2 — Uncover personal biases: The user suspects their own thinking is constrained by assumptions they cannot see and wants help identifying their blind spots.
Interpretation 3 — Audit what's being taken for granted: The user is looking at a situation, system, or status quo and asking "what is everyone just accepting without questioning?"
If ambiguous, ask: "I can help with extracting assumptions from a specific plan, uncovering your own hidden biases, or auditing what's being taken for granted in a situation — which fits?"
If clear from context, proceed with the matching interpretation.
Purpose
Every claim, plan, or argument rests on hidden assumptions—things that must be true for the claim to hold. This skill extracts those assumptions, making implicit beliefs explicit.
Why this matters:
- Hidden assumptions are often where claims fail
- Making assumptions explicit enables testing them
- Assumptions reveal worldview and blind spots
Assumption Types
| Type | Description | Example |
|---|
| Causal | X causes Y | "Marketing -> Sales" assumes causation |
| Existence | X exists | "The market" assumes a defined market exists |
| Stability | X won't change | "Current trends continue" assumes stability |
| Access | We can reach/use X | "Use the API" assumes API access |
| Capability | We/they can do X | "Team will deliver" assumes capability |
| Value | X is good/desirable | "Growth is good" assumes growth is valued |
| Knowledge | We/they know X | "Users understand" assumes knowledge |
| Resources | X resources available | "Budget exists" assumes funding |
| Permission | Allowed to do X | "We can change" assumes authority |
| Timing | X timing is correct | "Now is the time" assumes timing |
Depth Scaling
Default: 2x. Parse depth from $ARGUMENTS if specified (e.g., "/aex 4x [input]").
| Depth | Min Assumptions Found | Min Layers Deep | Min Categories | Min Hidden Assumptions |
|---|
| 1x | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2x | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 4x | 12 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 8x | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 16x | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
These are floors. Go deeper where insight is dense. Compress where it's not.
The Extraction Process
Step 1: Identify the Core Claims
Parse the input into distinct claims:
INPUT: [original content]
CORE CLAIMS IDENTIFIED:
1. [Claim 1]
2. [Claim 2]
3. [Claim 3]
...
TOTAL CLAIMS: [N]
Step 2: For Each Claim, Extract Assumptions
Apply the assumption extraction questions:
CLAIM: [claim text]
EXTRACTION QUESTIONS:
1. CAUSAL: What must cause what for this to work?
-> [assumption]
2. EXISTENCE: What must exist that isn't proven?
-> [assumption]
3. STABILITY: What must stay the same?
-> [assumption]
4. ACCESS: What must we be able to reach/use?
-> [assumption]
5. CAPABILITY: What must someone be able to do?
-> [assumption]
6. VALUE: What must be considered good/desirable?
-> [assumption]
7. KNOWLEDGE: What must someone know?
-> [assumption]
8. RESOURCES: What resources must be available?
-> [assumption]
9. PERMISSION: What must we be allowed to do?
-> [assumption]
10. TIMING: What timing must be correct?
-> [assumption]
Step 3: Rate Assumption Hiddenness
How obvious is each assumption?
| Level | Description | Action |
|---|
| Surface | Explicitly stated or obvious | Note for completeness |
| Shallow | Easily inferred | Flag for verification |
| Deep | Non-obvious, requires analysis | Highlight for attention |
| Buried | Counter-intuitive, easy to miss | Critical to surface |
ASSUMPTION HIDDENNESS RATING:
| Assumption | Type | Hiddenness | Risk if Wrong |
|------------|------|------------|---------------|
| [Assumption 1] | Causal | Deep | High |
| [Assumption 2] | Stability | Surface | Low |
| [Assumption 3] | Capability | Buried | Critical |
...
Step 4: Identify Assumption Dependencies
Some assumptions depend on others:
ASSUMPTION DEPENDENCIES:
[Assumption A]
|-- requires [Assumption B]
|-- requires [Assumption C]
DEPENDENCY CHAINS:
1. [A] -> [B] -> [C] (if C fails, A and B fail)
2. [D] -> [E]
ROOT ASSUMPTIONS (no dependencies):
- [C]
- [E]
- [F]
Note: Root assumptions are most critical to verify
Step 5: Categorize by Testability
TESTABILITY ASSESSMENT:
IMMEDIATELY TESTABLE (can verify now):
- [Assumption X]: Test by [method]
- [Assumption Y]: Test by [method]
TESTABLE WITH EFFORT (requires work):
- [Assumption Z]: Would need [what] to test
UNTESTABLE (must accept or reject):
- [Assumption W]: Cannot test because [reason]. Evidence searched: [what you looked for and didn't find]. Closest available proxy: [what partial evidence exists].
-> Decision: [accept/reject/assume for now]
ALREADY TESTED (evidence exists):
- [Assumption V]: [evidence source]
Step 6: Generate Assumption Map
===================================================
ASSUMPTION MAP: [topic]
===================================================
CLAIM 1: [claim text]
|-- [Assumption 1.1] (Type: Causal, Hidden: Deep)
|-- [Assumption 1.2] (Type: Existence, Hidden: Surface)
|-- [Assumption 1.3] (Type: Capability, Hidden: Buried) [!]️ HIGH RISK
CLAIM 2: [claim text]
|-- [Assumption 2.1] (Type: Stability, Hidden: Shallow)
|-- [Assumption 2.2] (Type: Resources, Hidden: Deep)
[Continue for all claims]
===================================================
SUMMARY STATISTICS:
- Total claims analyzed: [N]
- Total assumptions extracted: [M]
- By type: Causal [X], Existence [Y], Stability [Z], ...
- By hiddenness: Surface [A], Shallow [B], Deep [C], Buried [D]
- High-risk assumptions: [count]
===================================================
PRIORITY ASSUMPTIONS (most critical to verify):
1. [Assumption] - Type: [type], Risk: HIGH
Why critical: [reason]
How to test: [method]
2. [Assumption] - Type: [type], Risk: HIGH
Why critical: [reason]
How to test: [method]
3. [Assumption] - Type: [type], Risk: MEDIUM
Why critical: [reason]
How to test: [method]
===================================================
Quick Extraction (Abbreviated)
For fast assumption surfacing:
QUICK ASSUMPTION EXTRACTION: [topic]
Claim: [main claim]
Must be true:
[ ] [Causal assumption]
[ ] [Existence assumption]
[ ] [Stability assumption]
[ ] [Capability assumption]
[ ] [Resource assumption]
Most hidden: [which one]
Most risky if wrong: [which one]
Example: "We should expand to the European market"
Claims
- We should expand (action is good)
- European market is the target (location choice)
- Expansion is possible (capability exists)
Assumption Extraction
Claim 1: "We should expand"
- CAUSAL: Expansion -> growth/profit
- VALUE: Growth is desirable
- TIMING: Now is the right time
- STABILITY: Current success will continue
Claim 2: "European market"
- EXISTENCE: A viable European market exists for us
- ACCESS: We can enter this market
- KNOWLEDGE: We understand European customers
- PERMISSION: Regulations allow entry
Claim 3: "Expansion is possible"
- CAPABILITY: We can execute international expansion
- RESOURCES: We have capital, people, time
- STABILITY: Our core business won't suffer
Assumption Map Output
PRIORITY ASSUMPTIONS:
1. "We understand European customers" - Knowledge, BURIED
Why critical: Product-market fit depends on this
How to test: Customer research, pilot market
2. "Our core business won't suffer" - Stability, DEEP
Why critical: Expansion could drain resources
How to test: Capacity analysis, scenario modeling
3. "Regulations allow entry" - Permission, SHALLOW
Why critical: Could block entire plan
How to test: Legal review, compliance check
Assumption Extraction Patterns
For Plans/Strategies
Focus on: Capability, Resources, Timing, Stability
For Arguments/Claims
Focus on: Causal, Existence, Knowledge, Value
For Predictions
Focus on: Stability, Causal, Timing
For Decisions
Focus on: Value, Access, Permission, Capability
Quality Checklist
Before completing:
Integration
Use with:
/ai -> Invert assumptions to find blind spots/araw -> Test assumptions with Assume Right / Assume Wrong/cda -> Find where assumptions differ in other domains
