aprob-assume-problem

name	aprob - Assume Problem
description	Force the assumption that something IS the problem. Trace what follows if this is truly the root cause. What would fixing it look like? What evidence would confirm it?
output	{"format":"prose"}

Assume Problem

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Core Move

Take something — a factor, condition, person, system, belief — and assume it is THE problem. Not a contributing factor. THE root cause. Then trace what follows.

Useful for testing candidate root causes without getting lost in "well, it's complicated."

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Procedure

Step 1: State the Candidate Problem

What are we assuming is the problem?

Step 2: Force the Assumption

"[X] is the root cause. Everything else is a symptom or downstream effect."

Step 3: Trace Implications

If this is the problem:

1. What symptoms does it explain? — List every observed issue that would flow from this root cause.
2. What symptoms does it NOT explain? — What's left unexplained? (These challenge the assumption.)
3. What does fixing it look like? — Concrete actions to address this specific root cause.
4. What's the predicted result of fixing it? — If we fix this and it IS the problem, what specifically improves?
5. How did it become the problem? — What's the causal history?
6. Why hasn't it been fixed already? — What's prevented the fix? Incentives? Visibility? Difficulty?

Step 4: Test the Assumption

• Does this explain MORE symptoms than alternative root causes?
• Would fixing this actually resolve the situation, or would new problems emerge?
• Is there a way to test this hypothesis before committing to a fix?
• Could this be a symptom mistaken for a cause?

Step 5: Synthesize

CANDIDATE PROBLEM: [X]
ASSUMING IT'S THE ROOT CAUSE:
  Explains: [symptoms accounted for]
  Doesn't explain: [gaps]
  Fix: [concrete actions]
  Predicted result: [what improves]
ROOT CAUSE CONFIDENCE: [high/medium/low]
TEST: [how to verify before committing]

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When to Use

• Have multiple candidate root causes and need to test each
• Stuck in analysis paralysis about what the "real" problem is
• Want to trace implications of a specific diagnosis

Integration

• Run multiple times with different candidates, then compare
• Pair with /rca for systematic root cause analysis
• Follow with /asol to test candidate solutions