diagnose-find-the-cause

name	diagnose - Find the Cause
description	Sub-orchestrator for diagnostic questions. Routes to UAUA exploration, causal tracing, safety analysis, or direct debugging based on how much is known and the nature of the problem.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Diagnose

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Routing Decisions

1. Extract the Symptom

What is observably wrong? State it in concrete terms. "It's broken" is not a symptom — what specifically is broken? What happened vs what was expected?

If the input is too vague, ask: "What specifically is happening that shouldn't be?"

2. Is This Actually Diagnostic?

• "X is true" → This is a claim about a cause. → INVOKE: /claim $ARGUMENTS
• "Should I fix X?" → This is a decision. → INVOKE: /decide $ARGUMENTS
• "Nothing works" → This is emotional. → INVOKE: /emotion $ARGUMENTS
• "How do I fix X?" → This is method-seeking (cause already known). → INVOKE: /how $ARGUMENTS
• "I think the problem is X" → Formalize the hypothesis first. → INVOKE: /it $ARGUMENTS
• "X, but Y doesn't explain it" → Tension between symptom and explanation. → INVOKE: /but $ARGUMENTS
• "I'm not sure what's wrong" → Classify the uncertainty. → INVOKE: /nsa $ARGUMENTS
• "Handle this" (vague) → INVOKE: /handle $ARGUMENTS
• If it IS diagnostic → continue.

3. Is the Cause Known, Suspected, or Unknown?

Verify the problem is actually complex before applying complex analysis. Sometimes the obvious cause is the right one.

• Known ("It fails because of X"): this is actually a CLAIM about causation. → INVOKE: /claim "X causes [symptom]" — test whether the stated cause is correct.
• Suspected ("I think it might be X"): test the hypothesis. → INVOKE: /araw "X is the cause of [symptom]"
• Unknown ("I don't know why"): need to explore possible causes first. → Continue to full diagnostic process.

4. Technical or Non-Technical?

• Technical (code, systems, infrastructure): frame with technical vocabulary, consider /dbg.
• Non-technical (people, process, strategy, market): frame with systems vocabulary.
• Organizational (team dysfunction, communication breakdown): consider /sya (systems analysis).

5. Timeline

• Clear timeline (it started on Tuesday, after the deploy): trace back to what changed. → INVOKE: /fowwr [symptom + timeline]
• No timeline (it's always been like this, or unclear): broader investigation. → INVOKE: /uaua [symptom] — explore the space of possible causes.

6. Recurring?

• First time: full diagnosis.
• Recurring (tried fixing before, still broken): → INVOKE: /sbfow [symptom + what was tried]
• Getting worse over time: consider systemic/structural cause. → INVOKE: /sya [symptom pattern] + /fut [trend analysis]

7. Isolated or Systemic?

• Isolated incident: single root cause likely. → INVOKE: /rca [symptom]
• Pattern across areas: structural/systemic issue. → INVOKE: /sya [symptom pattern]

8. Safety and Severity Check

Before deep diagnosis, check:

• Safety-critical (medical, infrastructure, security): → also INVOKE: /saf $ARGUMENTS
• Obvious check first (has anyone checked the obvious?): → also INVOKE: /obv $ARGUMENTS
• Obvious bad outcomes if misdiagnosed: → also INVOKE: /obo $ARGUMENTS

9. Depth and Mode Selection

Situation	Mode
User wants quick answer	→ /ezy (easy mode)
User wants maximum rigor	→ /hrd (hard mode) or /certainty
User wants general principle	→ /genl (what general pattern explains this?)
User wants specific application	→ /spcf (apply known diagnosis framework to this case)
Problem seems too complex	→ /dcm (decompose first)
User might be wrong about the problem	→ /sid (situation identification)
User might have wrong mental model	→ /rmm (recover from wrong mental model)

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Execute

Default path (cause unknown, no timeline): → INVOKE: /uaua [symptom] — explore possible causes, then test each

With timeline: → INVOKE: /fowwr [symptom + timeline]

With suspected cause: → INVOKE: /araw [suspected cause]

Recurring problem: → INVOKE: /sbfow [symptom]

Supplementary Analysis (invoke when relevant)

Situation	Also invoke
Diagnosis involves ethical dimensions	→ /eth
Worst case matters	→ /dys (dystopia analysis)
Need to trace implications of the cause	→ /sycs (so you can see)
Need to check what else might break	→ /ata (and then also)
Unresolved sub-questions in diagnosis	→ /tbd (to be determined)
Self-deception about the cause	→ /sdc (self-deception check)
Need the story of what happened	→ /story (narrative construction)
Need to differentiate between similar causes	→ /difr (differentiation reasoning)

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After Completion

Report:

• The symptom as stated
• Root cause(s) identified (confirmed / suspected / unknown)
• Causal chain (what caused what)
• Prevention (what would stop recurrence)
• What's still unresolved

Follow-Up Routing

After diagnosis is complete, the user may need:

• "How do I fix it?" → INVOKE: /how $ARGUMENTS
• "What should I do?" → INVOKE: /decide or /action
• "What could go wrong if I fix it wrong?" → INVOKE: /fla or /obo
• "What are the implications?" → INVOKE: /sycs
• "What skill should I run next?" → INVOKE: /next or /fonss
• "What's still unresolved?" → INVOKE: /tbd