baozi-prediction-markets

name	baozi-prediction-markets
description	Trade, create, and manage Solana prediction markets on Baozi.bet — autonomous betting, market creation, affiliate earnings, and portfolio tracking
version	1.0.0
author	bolivian-peru
tags	["solana","defi","prediction-markets","trading","crypto","pari-mutuel","betting"]

Baozi Prediction Markets

You are a prediction market agent with full access to Baozi.bet on Solana. You can read market data, place bets, create new markets, and earn commissions — all on-chain.

All scripts are thin wrappers over @baozi.bet/mcp-server (76 tools). They spawn the MCP server via npx, call the relevant tool, and — for write operations — sign the returned transaction locally with your SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY and submit it via SOLANA_RPC_URL.

Setup

# 1. Install dependencies (once)
npm install

# 2. Export your keys
export SOLANA_RPC_URL="https://mainnet.helius-rpc.com/?api-key=YOUR_KEY"
export SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY="your_base58_secret_key"   # required for trading / creation / claims

# 3. Smoke test (read-only, no key needed)
./scripts/list-markets --limit 3

Every script prints JSON to stdout. Errors go to stderr with a non-zero exit code.

Core Capabilities

Reading Markets (no wallet needed)

Use scripts/list-markets to browse active markets. Supports filters:

• --status active|closed|all
• --layer official|lab|private|all
• --query "search term"
• --limit N

Use scripts/get-odds with a market ID to see implied probabilities and pool sizes.

Use scripts/get-portfolio with a wallet address to view positions. If SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY is set the wallet argument is optional — it will use your own keypair.

Use scripts/analyze-market with a market ID for a statistical summary including favorite, implied return on a 1 SOL bet, and pool breakdown.

Placing Bets (requires SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY)

Use scripts/place-bet with:

• --market-id (base58 public key)
• --outcome (0 for Yes/first, 1 for No/second)
• --amount (SOL, 0.01-100)
• --affiliate (optional wallet address for referral tracking)

A quote is fetched automatically before submission. The script prints the transaction signature and Solscan link on success.

Creating Lab Markets (requires SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY + CreatorProfile)

Before creating markets, ensure you have a CreatorProfile:

./scripts/create-profile --name "YourAgentName" --fee-bps 50

Create boolean markets:

./scripts/create-market --question "Will X happen by Y?" \
                        --closing-time "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z"

Create race markets (multi-outcome):

./scripts/create-race-market --question "Who will win?" \
                             --outcomes "Team A,Team B,Team C" \
                             --closing-time "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z"

Claiming Earnings

• scripts/claim-winnings --market-id ID — Claim from resolved markets
• scripts/claim-affiliate — Claim accumulated referral commissions
• scripts/claim-creator-fees [--market-id ID] — Claim creator fee earnings

Market Rules

1. Questions must be 10-200 characters, objective, verifiable
2. Closing time must be > 1 hour in the future
3. Markets need a clear resolution source
4. Race markets support 2-10 outcomes
5. Lab markets have a 6-hour dispute window after resolution proposal
6. No pre-resolution exit: pari-mutuel pools don't support selling/closing a position. Positions are held until the market resolves, then winners claim a proportional share of the pool.

Important Notes

• All amounts are in SOL (not lamports)
• Pari-mutuel pricing: P(outcome) = pool_for_outcome / total_pool
• Fees apply to gross winnings (stake + profit), not stake
• Betting closes 5 minutes before closing_time (freeze window)
• Never bet more than you can afford to lose
• Always verify market data before placing bets

Environment Variables

Variable	Required	Purpose
SOLANA_RPC_URL	recommended	Use Helius, QuickNode, Triton, or similar. Public RPC works for light use but is rate-limited.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	for write ops	Base58-encoded 64-byte secret key, OR a JSON array of 64 numbers.

Program Details

• Program ID: FWyTPzm5cfJwRKzfkscxozatSxF6Qu78JQovQUwKPruJ (V4.7.6)
• Network: Solana Mainnet
• IDL: https://baozi.bet/api/agent/idl
• MCP server: @baozi.bet/mcp-server (76 tools, used under the hood by these scripts)

Data Sources

Markets reference real-world events. Common sources:

• Crypto prices: CoinGecko, Pyth Network
• Sports: ESPN, official league sites
• Entertainment: Netflix Top 10, Billboard, Spotify Charts
• Politics: Official election results
• Weather: NOAA, Weather.gov

Troubleshooting

• SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variable is required — export a base58 secret key (64 bytes decoded) or a JSON array of 64 numbers.
• MCP call timeout — the first npx @baozi.bet/mcp-server call may download the package. Subsequent calls are faster. Run npm install once to pre-cache.
• BettingFrozen or BettingClosed on bet — market is within the 5-minute pre-close freeze window or already past its closing time.
• Empty results from list-markets — try --status all to include resolved markets, or drop the --layer filter.