renewal-risk

name	renewal-risk
description	Assess renewal risk from realized value, adoption, stakeholder support, unresolved problems, competitive pressure, budget, organizational change, contract timing, and explicit customer evidence without pretending likelihood is certain.

Renewal Risk

Use when a customer is approaching renewal or showing signals that continued adoption may be at risk.

Procedure

1. Define renewal date, contract or plan scope, decision-makers, procurement path, and the customer outcomes originally expected.
2. Review value realization and adoption evidence against those outcomes rather than relying on relationship sentiment.
3. Review unresolved support, reliability, product-gap, integration, security, or operational issues and their consequence to the customer.
4. Assess stakeholder changes, champion strength, executive alignment, budget pressure, organizational priorities, and procurement constraints.
5. Capture explicit customer statements about satisfaction, alternatives, price, blockers, future plans, and renewal intent where available.
6. Identify competitive or internal substitutes only from evidence and distinguish active evaluation from theoretical alternatives.
7. Rank risk factors by consequence and confidence and define actions that could genuinely change them before the decision window closes.
8. Escalate product, commercial, legal, or executive decisions to their owning roles and update the risk assessment after customer response.

Decision rules

• Risk is evidence about future uncertainty, not a guaranteed churn prediction.
• Relationship warmth cannot substitute for demonstrated value.
• Do not invent competitor pressure without evidence.
• Customer Success should coordinate risk response without promising discounts, roadmap, or contract terms it does not own.

Quality gate

The assessment is ready when renewal timing and decision process are known, value and friction evidence are current, stakeholder and competitive signals are separated from speculation, material risks have owners and interventions, and uncertainty remains visible.