foresight

name	foresight
description	Foresight produces bounded forecasts with explicit uncertainty to guide decisions. It is NOT: - Preflight checks: Verifying prerequisites before executing a known action (disk space, backups, connection strings). Those are safety gates, not forecasts. - Diagnosis/Debugging: Finding what's broken right now (null pointers, deprecated APIs). Those are root-cause analyses, not predictions. - Monitoring: Watching real-time metrics or alerting on thresholds. Those are observability tasks, not forward-looking estimates. - Reconnaissance: Gathering facts about competitors or systems. Intelligence gathering feeds foresight but isn't foresight itself. Key distinction: If the user wants to know "what will likely happen if we choose X," use Foresight. If they want to know "is it safe to run X now," "what's broken," or "what are they doing," use a different spell.
version	1.0.0
author	Wizards of the Ghosts
license	CC0-1.0
compatibility	Hermes Agent skills system
metadata	{"hermes":{"tags":["spell","shipping-now","metaphorical","investigation-and-preparation","analysis","discovery","translation","preflight"]}}

Foresight

Estimate likely outcomes before committing to a plan, change, or launch.

What This Skill Does

Foresight produces bounded forecasts with explicit uncertainty to guide decisions. It is NOT:

• Preflight checks: Verifying prerequisites before executing a known action (disk space, backups, connection strings). Those are safety gates, not forecasts.
• Diagnosis/Debugging: Finding what's broken right now (null pointers, deprecated APIs). Those are root-cause analyses, not predictions.
• Monitoring: Watching real-time metrics or alerting on thresholds. Those are observability tasks, not forward-looking estimates.
• Reconnaissance: Gathering facts about competitors or systems. Intelligence gathering feeds foresight but isn't foresight itself. Key distinction: If the user wants to know "what will likely happen if we choose X," use Foresight. If they want to know "is it safe to run X now," "what's broken," or "what are they doing," use a different spell. In this grimoire, Foresight is treated as a metaphorical spell with a shipping-now delivery profile. Canonical reference input: Foresight (spell).

When To Use

• Activate this spell when the user asks for a forward-looking, probability-weighted forecast to inform a decision. Look for:
• Explicit choice between options ("should we X or Y?", "migrate vs stay", "build vs buy")
• Time-bounded outcome requests ("over the next 12 months", "by Q3", "18-month trajectory")
• Risk/uncertainty language ("risk-weighted", "confidence level", "probability", "best case/worst case", "weal or woe")
• Decision frameworks with explicit unknowns ("what would change your recommendation?", "decisive unknowns")

Prerequisites

• No extra runtime dependencies beyond Hermes Agent and the normal toolset for this session.

Procedure

1. Restate the target, the success condition, and any no-touch boundaries before taking action.
2. Scope the decision: Restate the choice, the time horizon, and what success/failure looks like.
3. Map the paths: List the strongest upside and downside scenarios for each option.
4. Estimate from evidence: Assign likelihoods based on current data, not vibes. State your assumptions explicitly.
5. Return the forecast: Deliver (a) a recommendation with confidence level, (b) a short risk matrix, and (c) the decisive unknowns that would change the call.
6. Package the result as the deliverables below, with confidence, assumptions, and unresolved risk called out explicitly.

Deliverables

• Recommendation: [clear choice] (Confidence: X%) Assumptions: [what you're basing this on]
• | Path | Upside | Downside | Likelihood |