agent-estimation

name

agent-estimation

description

Accurately estimate AI agent work effort using the agent's own operational units (tool-call rounds) instead of human time. Use when asked to estimate, scope, plan, or evaluate how long a coding task will take. Prevents the common failure mode where agents anchor to human developer timelines and massively overestimate. Outputs a structured breakdown with round counts, risk factors, and a final wallclock conversion.

Agent Work Estimation Skill

Problem

AI coding agents systematically overestimate task duration because they anchor to human developer timelines absorbed from training data. A task an agent can complete in 30 minutes gets estimated as "2-3 days" because that's what a human developer forum post would say.

Solution

Force the agent to estimate from its own operational units — tool-call rounds — and only convert to human wallclock time at the very end.

Core Units

Unit	Definition	Scale
Round	One tool-call cycle: think → write code → execute → verify → fix	~2-4 min wallclock
Module	A functional unit built from multiple rounds until usable	2-15 rounds
Project	All modules + integration + debugging	Sum of modules × integration factor

A Round is the atomic unit. It maps directly to one iteration of:

1. Agent reasons about what to do
2. Agent writes/edits code
3. Agent runs the code or a test
4. Agent reads the output
5. Agent decides if it needs to fix something (if yes → next round)

Estimation Procedure

When asked to estimate a task, follow these steps in order: