estimation-stinger

name

estimation-stinger

description

Software estimation and forecasting specialist. Covers relative-sizing frameworks (story points, Fibonacci, T-shirt sizing, Planning Poker), the NoEstimates movement and its evidence base, the planning-fallacy literature explaining why estimates are systematically wrong, and cycle-time / throughput-based probabilistic forecasting (Monte Carlo simulation, percentile-based delivery predictions). Invoke when the user says "our story points mean nothing", "should we use NoEstimates?", "how do I do T-shirt sizing for a roadmap?", "we need a 90% confidence delivery date", "explain Monte Carlo to my PM", "why are our estimates always wrong", or any question about sizing, forecasting, or the NoEstimates debate. Do NOT invoke for sprint cadence design, Jira/Linear tool configuration, or team-capacity math -- those belong to the team's agile process or tooling domains.

Estimation Stinger

Procedural arsenal for estimation-worker-bee, the Legion AI Army's authority on software estimation and probabilistic delivery forecasting.

This stinger encodes:

• The canonical relative-sizing frameworks: Fibonacci story points, T-shirt sizing, Planning Poker, and when each applies.
• The NoEstimates movement: Vasco Duarte's throughput-as-forecast argument, prerequisites, and the honest evidence gap (no controlled RCTs).
• The planning-fallacy literature: why expert estimators are systematically wrong, the inside-view / outside-view distinction, and Kahneman/Tversky/Flyvbjerg's recommended remedy (reference class forecasting).
• Monte Carlo simulation: how it works, what data it needs, the 2026 free tooling landscape, and practical setup for teams with cycle-time history.
• The five-category dysfunction diagnosis that tells you WHICH technique to recommend before you recommend anything.

It does NOT encode sprint planning ritual design, Jira/Linear configuration, team capacity planning formulas, or vendor procurement.

When this stinger applies

Load when estimation-worker-bee is invoked. Typical user phrases: