| name | assumption-audit |
| type | workflow |
| family | workflow |
| rigor | full |
| description | Use as the mandatory evidence gate before signing off on any strategy, PRD, or business case—audits every key claim against documented sources and assigns calibrated probabilities. |
| keywords | validation, evidence, claims, assumptions, testing, gate, verification |
| compatibility | Claude Code and compatible agent products |
| requires | ["problem-framing"] |
| enhances | ["devils-advocate","decision-frameworks","strategy-clarity"] |
| sources_pdf | ["Thinking in Bets (Duke)","How to Decide (Duke)","Antifragile (Taleb)","Seeking Wisdom (Bevelin)","Useful Not True (Sivers)"] |
| sources_web | ["Farnam Street: Decision-Making","Farnam Street: Inversion"] |
Overview
Assumption-audit is the "evidence gate" that prevents Resulting (evaluating decisions by outcomes) and Hindsight Bias (feeling something was predictable after it happened). It forces an honest accounting of what is known versus what is guessed.
Iron Law
NO SIGN-OFF WITHOUT VALIDATION EVIDENCE FOR EVERY KEY CLAIM
Assertions without evidence are vulnerabilities. Unaudited assumptions create fragile strategies that collapse under the first sign of volatility.
State Machine
digraph assumption_audit_flow {
"Start" [shape=doublecircle];
"Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" [shape=box];
"Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)" [shape=box];
"Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)" [shape=box];
"Step 4: Probability Calibration" [shape=box];
"Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" [shape=diamond];
"Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" [shape=box];
"Done: Audit Passed" [shape=doublecircle];
"Start" -> "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions";
"Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" -> "Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)";
"Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)" -> "Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)";
"Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)" -> "Step 4: Probability Calibration";
"Step 4: Probability Calibration" -> "Gate: Claim-Evidence Match";
"Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" -> "Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" [label="matched"];
"Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" -> "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" [label="mismatch"];
"Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" -> "Done: Audit Passed";
}
When to Use This Skill
- Before finalizing a PRD, strategy memo, or business case.
- When a recommendation relies on future forecasts or market "certainties."
- When you find yourself saying "I just have a feeling" or "It's obvious that..."
- Before any high-stakes decision where the downside of being wrong is significant.
When NOT to Use This Skill
- For low-stakes, reversible decisions (Type 2 decisions) where the cost of auditing exceeds the cost of failure.
- For purely creative tasks (e.g., brainstorming) where audit-culture might stifle ideation (use after ideation, before selection).
Core Process
Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions
- Identify Every Major Claim: List the foundations upon which the proposal stands.
- Check for Misjudgments: Run the checklist of 28 reasons for misjudgment (e.g., Anchoring, Social Proof, Incentive bias). (Source: Bevelin, Seeking Wisdom)
- Distinguish Facts from Beliefs: Explicitly label what is a verified fact versus what is an educated guess. (Source: Duke, How to Decide)
