dr-forecast-variance

name	dr-forecast-variance
description	Analyze budget vs forecast vs actual variances. Compares multi-scenario financial data for planning and performance review.
user-invocable	true
allowed-tools	["mcp__datarails-finance-os__aggregate_table_data","Write","Read","Bash"]
argument-hint	--year <YYYY> [--scenarios <list>] [--period <YYYY-MM>] [--output-xlsx <file>] [--output-pptx <file>]

Forecast Variance Analysis

Analyze variances between Actuals, Budget, and Forecast scenarios.

Essential for FP&A reviews, planning adjustments, and performance tracking.

Arguments

Argument	Description	Default
--year <YYYY>	REQUIRED Calendar year to analyze	—
--scenarios <list>	Comma-separated scenarios	Actuals,Budget,Forecast
--period <YYYY-MM>	Specific period to focus on	All year
--output-xlsx <file>	Excel output path	tmp/Forecast_Variance_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.xlsx
--output-pptx <file>	PowerPoint output path	tmp/Forecast_Summary_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.pptx

Variance Analysis

Budget Variance

• Actual vs Budget amounts
• Percentage difference
• Favorable/unfavorable identification
• Trend analysis

Forecast Variance

• Actual vs Forecast amounts
• Track forecast accuracy
• Identify forecast bias
• Forecast adjustment recommendations

Multi-Account Analysis

• Revenue variance by product/segment
• Expense variance by department
• Account-level drill-down
• Root cause identification

Datarails Brand Styling

When generating Excel or PowerPoint files, apply Datarails brand styling:

Font: Poppins (fall back to Calibri if unavailable). Weights: 400 regular, 600 semibold, 700 bold.

Colors:

Role	Hex	Use
Navy	0C142B	Header/banner background
Main text	333333	Primary text
Secondary	6D6E6F	Muted/subtitle text
Border	9EA1AA	Cell borders
Section bg	F2F2FB	Section header / row header background (lavender)
Input bg	EAEAFF	Editable/input cell background
Input text	4646CE	Editable cell text (indigo)
Favorable	2ECC71	Positive variance / good KPI delta
Unfavorable	E74C3C	Negative variance / bad KPI delta
Chart 1	0C142B	Actuals (navy)
Chart 2	F93576	Budget (hot pink)
Chart 3	00B4D8	Teal
Chart 4	FFA30F	Amber

Excel layout:

• Content starts at column B (column A is a narrow gutter)
• Rows 1-6: header banner with navy background, white title text, white subtitle
• Gridlines OFF. Freeze panes at B7.
• Footer as last row with generation date
• Every cell must have font, fill, alignment, and number format set

Number formats: _(* #,##0_);_(* (#,##0);_(* "-"_);_(@_) (default), $#,##0 (dollars), $#,##0.0,,"M" (millions), 0.0% (percent)

Variance coloring: Any cell showing a delta/change: green (2ECC71) if favorable, red (E74C3C) if unfavorable. Apply automatically based on value sign and metric context.

PowerPoint: Navy (0C142B) background, 16:9 widescreen, Poppins font, white text, amber (FFA30F) accent lines, card backgrounds 001F37.

Output

Excel Report

• Summary: Total variances by scenario
• Variance Analysis: Account-by-account comparison
• Scenario Totals: Total by scenario
• Exception Report: Large variances highlighted

PowerPoint Summary

• Overview slide: Scenario totals
• Variance slide: Top variances
• Executive summary
• Key findings

Examples

Annual variance analysis

/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025

With custom scenarios

/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget

Specific period focus

/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --period 2025-Q4

Custom output

/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 \
  --output-xlsx reports/variance_2025.xlsx \
  --output-pptx reports/variance_summary.pptx

Use Cases

Monthly FP&A Review

# Compare latest actuals vs budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget

Forecast Accuracy Tracking

# Compare forecast prediction accuracy
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast

Full Scenario Planning

# Complete comparison for board review
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget,Forecast

Department Review

# Analyze departmental performance vs budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025

Investor Update

# Professional variance analysis for stakeholders
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025

Performance

• Analysis: ~1-3 minutes
• Scales to multiple years
• Handles 100+ accounts
• Efficient aggregation

Interpretation

Favorable Variance

• Actual > Budget (Revenue) ✅
• Actual < Budget (Expense) ✅

Unfavorable Variance

• Actual < Budget (Revenue) ❌
• Actual > Budget (Expense) ❌

% Variance

• <5%: Excellent forecast/budget accuracy
• 5-10%: Good, within normal range
• 10%+: Needs investigation

Workflow

FP&A Process:

1. /dr-extract --year 2025       (Get actuals)
2. /dr-reconcile --year 2025     (Validate data)
3. /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025  (Analyze variances)
4. Present findings to leadership (Board meeting)

Advanced Usage

Track forecast improvement

# Monthly variance tracking
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-01
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-02
# Compare forecast accuracy trend

Multi-year comparison

/dr-forecast-variance --year 2024 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
# Compare year-over-year performance

Scenario sensitivity

# Three different budget scenarios
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget_Conservative,Budget_Aggressive

Error Handling

"Scenario not found" - Verify scenario exists in data

"No variance data" - Confirm Budget/Forecast scenarios available

"Large variance" - Review detailed Excel report for root causes

Integration

Works with:

• /dr-extract - Source of scenario data
• /dr-insights - Contextual trend analysis
• /dr-reconcile - Validate scenario consistency
• /dr-dashboard - Current performance view

Related Skills

• /dr-extract - Extract scenario data
• /dr-insights - Understand drivers of variances
• /dr-reconcile - Validate data consistency
• /dr-dashboard - Real-time performance