| name | pipeline-forecasting |
| description | Veteran playbook for freight-sales pipeline and forecast discipline — stage definitions tied to buyer behavior, coverage ratio, sales velocity, weighted vs commit vs best-case forecast, the deal-inspection checklist, single-threaded-risk flags, and the long multi-stakeholder logistics cycle (6 to 18 months). Consulted by pipeline-forecast-coach. |
Pipeline & Forecasting Skill
Purpose: help pipeline-forecast-coach keep the CRM honest and the forecast defensible in a long, multi-stakeholder sales cycle. A stage is what the buyer did, not how the seller feels.
When to use
- A pipeline review or forecast call.
- Deal-by-deal inspection for at-risk deals.
- Checking whether coverage is enough to hit quota.
1. Stage discipline (behavior-based)
Each stage has an exit criterion the buyer demonstrably meets:
| Stage | Exit criterion (buyer behavior) | Default probability* |
|---|
| Lead / Prospect | responded, agreed to talk | 5–10% |
| Discovery / Qualify | confirmed need + lanes + volumes + decision process | 20% |
| Solution / Scoping | requirements agreed; we're a shortlisted option | 40% |
| Proposal / Quote | pricing/proposal formally presented | 60% |
| Negotiation | terms in redline; verbal/contingent yes | 80% |
| Closed-Won | signed contract / SOW / first booking | 100% |
* Calibrate to your own historical win-rates by stage — these are starting defaults, not truth.
Rule: if you can't name what the customer did to enter a stage, the deal isn't in it.
2. Coverage ratio
coverage = open weighted pipeline ÷ remaining quota. In long, lower-win-rate logistics cycles the healthy multiple runs higher (commonly 3–4×+; calibrate to your win-rate). Surface the ratio and the implied gap — and surface it early, because a 6–18 month cycle can't be fixed at quarter-end.
3. Sales velocity
velocity = (# qualified opps × avg deal value × win rate) ÷ avg cycle length (days)
— the "how fast is revenue moving" number. Improving any of the four levers (more opps, bigger deals, higher win-rate, shorter cycle) increases velocity. Use it to compare reps, lanes, or quarters, and to see which lever to pull.
4. Three forecast numbers, labeled
Never one blended guess:
- Commit — deals the seller will personally stand behind (near-certain).
- Best-case — commit + credible upside.
- Weighted — Σ(deal value × stage probability) across the pipeline.
Report all three; the gap between them is the conversation.
5. Deal-inspection checklist
For each material deal:
- Last meaningful activity (not an auto-email).
- Next step + date — missing = effectively dead.
- Contacts: how many, how senior — single contact = single-threaded risk (P1 in logistics, where procurement + ops + finance all gate).
- Decision criteria known? Compelling event (a contract end, a peak, a disruption)?
- Competition / incumbent and why-we-win.
- Realistic close date vs the CRM date (count the pushes).
6. The logistics-cycle reality
Managed-logistics / 3PL contracts run 6–18 months with procurement (budget), operations (requirements), and finance (cost model) all approving. A one-contact deal is structurally fragile; multi-threading is the mitigation. This is why coverage must be built far ahead of the quarter you want to land.
7. Hygiene sweep (run every review)
Flag: stuck deals (no stage change in N weeks), serial-pushed close dates, zombie deals (open, zero activity), missing-data deals, and single-threaded deals. Clean the pipeline before you forecast off it — a dirty pipeline produces a fictional number.
Hand-offs
- Coverage gap needs net-new →
prospect-outreach skill / prospecting-outreach-strategist.
- Expansion deals in current accounts →
qbr-account-planning skill / key-account-manager.
- Building a real CRM/pipeline dashboard →
data-platform plugin / ravenclaude-core data-engineer.
