analyst-estimates

# Analyst Estimates Retrieve analyst financial estimates for public companies using Octagon MCP. ## Prerequisites Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See [references/mcp-setup.md](references/mcp-setup.md) for installation instructions. ## Query Format ``` Retrieve analyst financial estimates for <TICKER> for the annual period, limited to <N> records on page 0. ``` **MCP Call:** ```json { "server": "octagon-mcp", "toolName": "octagon-agent", "arguments": { "prompt": "Retrieve analyst financial estimates for AAPL for the annual period, limited to 10 records on page 0" } } ``` ## Output Format The agent returns a table with analyst estimates across future periods: | Fiscal Year Ending | Revenue Estimate (Low to High) | Revenue Avg | EPS Estimate (Low to High) | EPS Avg | # Revenue Analysts | # EPS Analysts | |-------------------|-------------------------------|-------------|---------------------------|---------|-------------------|----------------| | 2030-09-27 | $540.64B - $600.88B | $566.24B | $12.01 - $13.78 | $12.77 | 9 | 6 | | 2029-09-27 | $520.95B - $578.99B | $545.62B | $10.62 - $12.17 | $11.28 | 13 | 6 | | 2028-09-27 | $515.19B - $520.48B | $517.84B | $8.96 - $11.18 | $10.20 | 18 | 15 | | 2027-09-27 | $474.27B - $531.94B | $490.97B | $8.41 - $9.77 | $9.23 | 31 | 30 | | 2026-09-27 | $445.03B - $483.54B | $460.35B | $7.84 - $8.92 | $8.42 | 24 | 29 | **Data Source:** octagon-financials-agent ## Key Observations Pattern After receiving data, generate observations: 1. **Growth trajectory**: Calculate implied revenue and EPS CAGR 2. **Estimate dispersion**: Analyze spread between low and high estimates 3. **Analyst coverage**: Note number of analysts covering each period 4. **Near vs far-term**: Compare confidence in near-term vs long-term estimates 5. **Historical comparison**: Compare estimates to actual historical performance ## Metrics Reference | Metric | Definition | |--------|------------| | Revenue Estimate (Low to High) | Range of analyst revenue projections | | Revenue Avg | Consensus average revenue estimate | | EPS Estimate (Low to High) | Range of analyst EPS projections | | EPS Avg | Consensus average EPS estimate | | # Revenue Analysts | Number of analysts providing revenue estimates | | # EPS Analysts | Number of analysts providing EPS estimates | ## Analysis Tips ### Implied Growth Rate ``` Implied CAGR = (Future Estimate / Current)^(1/Years) - 1 ``` Example: ($566B / $416B)^(1/5) - 1 = 6.4% revenue CAGR ### Estimate Dispersion ``` Dispersion = (High - Low) / Average × 100 ``` - Narrow dispersion (<10%) = High consensus - Wide dispersion (>20%) = Significant uncertainty ### Analyst Coverage Quality - More analysts = more reliable consensus - Declining coverage = less institutional interest - <5 analysts = thin coverage, use caution ### Forward P/E Calculation ``` Forward P/E = Current Price / EPS Estimate ``` Use for valuation relative to growth expectations. ### Estimate Revisions (with follow-up) Track changes over time: - Upward revisions = positive momentum - Downward revisions = negative momentum - Frequency of revisions matters ## Valuation Applications ### DCF Inputs Use estimates for: - Revenue projections - Margin assumptions (with historical data) - Terminal growth rate guidance ### Relative Valuation Compare: - Forward P/E to historical average - Forward P/E to peers - PEG ratio (P/E / Growth rate) ### Earnings Surprise Potential Compare estimates to: - Management guidance - Historical beat/miss rate - Recent operating trends ## Confidence Assessment ### High Confidence Estimates - Near-term (1-2 years out) - Many analysts covering - Narrow dispersion - Stable business model ### Low Confidence Estimates - Long-term (5+ years out) - Few analysts covering - Wide dispersion - Rapidly changing industry ## Follow-up Queries Based on results, suggest deeper analysis: - "What factors are driving the projected revenue growth from [YEAR1] to [YEAR2]?" - "How do these estimates compare to [COMPANY]'s historical financial performance?" - "What are the key risks to achieving the upper end of these revenue estimates?" - "Retrieve analyst price targets and ratings for [TICKER]"