wins-losses

name	wins-losses
description	Analyze won and lost deals for patterns, insights, and actionable learnings. Use when user says "win/loss analysis", "why did we lose", "deal patterns", "win themes", or asks about deal outcome trends. Do NOT use for visual HTML reports — use /octave:win-loss-report instead.

/octave:wins-losses - Deal Intelligence

Analyze your won and lost deals to understand what's working, why you're losing, and how to improve win rates. Surface patterns, competitor intelligence, and actionable recommendations.

Usage

/octave:wins-losses [--status won|lost|both] [--period <time-range>]

Options

• --status <status> - Focus on won, lost, or both (default: both)
• --period <range> - Time range (month, quarter, year, custom)
• --competitor <name> - Filter by competitor involvement
• --segment <name> - Filter by segment
• --min-amount <amount> - Minimum deal size
• --company <domain> - Analyze specific deal

Examples

/octave:wins-losses                                  # Overview of recent wins/losses
/octave:wins-losses --status lost --period quarter   # Lost deals this quarter
/octave:wins-losses --competitor "Salesforce"        # Deals involving Salesforce
/octave:wins-losses --segment "Enterprise"           # Enterprise deals analysis
/octave:wins-losses --company acme.com               # Deep dive on Acme deal

Instructions

When the user runs /octave:wins-losses:

Step 1: Determine Focus

If no options provided, show overview:

What would you like to analyze?

1. Full Win/Loss Report - Compare wins and losses
2. Win Analysis - What's working, why we win
3. Loss Analysis - Why we're losing, patterns
4. Competitor Analysis - Win/loss by competitor
5. Deal Deep Dive - Analyze specific deal

Your choice:

Step 2: Query Deal Data

For Overview:

# Get won deals
list_events({
  eventTypes: ["DEAL_WON"],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" },
  limit: 50
})

# Get lost deals
list_events({
  eventTypes: ["DEAL_LOST"],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" },
  limit: 50
})

# Get findings from won deals
list_findings({
  opportunityStatus: ["WON"],
  extractionTypes: [
    "CALL_EXTERNAL_OBJECTIONS",
    "CALL_INTERNAL_VALUE_PROP_PRESENTATIONS",
    "CALL_INTERNAL_PROOF_POINTS",
    "CALL_EXTERNAL_COMPETITORS_TO_OUR_OFFERING"
  ],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" },
  limit: 100
})

# Get findings from lost deals
list_findings({
  opportunityStatus: ["LOST"],
  extractionTypes: [
    "CALL_EXTERNAL_OBJECTIONS",
    "CALL_INTERNAL_VALUE_PROP_PRESENTATIONS",
    "CALL_EXTERNAL_COMPETITORS_TO_OUR_OFFERING"
  ],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" },
  limit: 100
})

For Competitor Analysis:

list_findings({
  extractionTypes: ["CALL_EXTERNAL_COMPETITORS_TO_OUR_OFFERING", "EMAIL_COMPETITOR_MENTION"],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" },
  entityMatches: {
    competitorOIds: ["<competitor_oId>"]
  }
})

For Deal Deep Dive:

list_events({
  eventTypes: ["DEAL_WON", "DEAL_LOST", "CALL", "EMAIL"],
  companyDomains: ["<domain>"]
})

list_findings({
  companyDomains: ["<domain>"]
})

get_event_detail({
  eventOId: "<event_oId>",
  includeTranscript: true
})

Step 3: Analyze Patterns

Aggregate findings across won/lost deals:

list_findings({
  eventTypes: ["DEAL_WON", "DEAL_LOST"],
  dateRange: { start: "<period start>", end: "<today>" }
})

Step 4: Present Analysis

---

Full Win/Loss Report

See full-win-loss-report.md for the full win/loss report template.

---

Loss Analysis (--status lost)

See loss-analysis.md for the loss analysis template.

---

Deal Deep Dive (--company)

See deal-deep-dive.md for the deal deep dive template.

Step 5: Generate Recommendations

Based on analysis, offer actionable next steps:

Based on this analysis, I recommend:

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS
-----------------
1. Create Competitor A TCO battlecard section
   → /octave:pmm battlecard --competitor "Competitor A" --focus pricing

2. Update Motion ICP discovery guidance with budget qualification
   → update_motion_playbook with new methodology/objection content for the relevant Motion ICP cell

3. Review current pipeline for similar patterns
   → /octave:research --for pipeline-review

STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
-------------------------
1. Consider pricing/packaging review for competitive segment
2. Create "pilot program" offer for price-sensitive deals
3. Develop CFO-specific value story

Would you like me to execute any of these?

MCP Tools Used

Deal & Event Access

• list_events - Filter by DEAL_WON, DEAL_LOST
• list_findings - Get findings from won/lost deals
• get_event_detail - Get detailed event info with transcript/content

Library Context

• get_entity - Get competitor, persona details
• list_motions - List Motions in the workspace
• list_motion_icps - List Motion ICP cells under a Motion
• find_motion_icp - Motion ICP narrative + Learning Loop learnings
• search_knowledge_base - Find related content

Library Updates

• update_entity - Apply recommendations to library
• update_motion_playbook - Edit Motion Playbook narrative sections based on win/loss findings

Error Handling

No Deals Found:

No won/lost deals found for this period.

This could mean:

1. CRM integration isn't syncing deal outcomes
2. Date range has no closed deals
3. Filters are too restrictive

Check your Octave CRM integration settings, or expand the date range.

Missing Deal Data:

Deal found but limited conversation data.

For better analysis, ensure:

• Calls are being recorded and synced
• Emails are connected
• Findings extraction is enabled

Related Skills

• /octave:insights - Broader findings across all events
• /octave:analyzer - Deep dive on specific conversations
• /octave:battlecard - Competitive battlecards from win/loss data
• /octave:research - Research for current pipeline deals
• /octave:icp-refine - Refine ICP definitions from deal patterns
• /octave:enablement - Turn win/loss learnings into training materials