build-a-rolling-forecast

name	build-a-rolling-forecast
category	money
description	Build and maintain a rolling financial forecast from reconciled actuals, explicit operating drivers, scenarios, and measured forecast error. Use when leaders need a regularly refreshed view of profit, cash, liquidity, or capacity.

build-a-rolling-forecast

Keep assumptions visible and replace forecast periods with actuals on a fixed cadence.

When to use

• Use for monthly or weekly planning when a static annual budget is no longer enough.
• Keep accounting results, cash timing, and management adjustments distinguishable.

Procedure

1. Define entities, currencies, accounting basis, forecast horizon, time buckets, update cadence, owners, and decision thresholds.
2. Load closed actuals and reconcile revenue, costs, working capital, debt, tax, capital spending, and cash to the controlled source.
3. Model revenue through observable price, volume, customer, contract, pipeline, or usage drivers.
4. Model headcount, compensation, vendors, infrastructure, facilities, tax, capital spending, financing, and working capital with timing.
5. Separate controlled inputs, formulas, actuals, overrides, and outputs. Record source, owner, date, confidence, and rationale for each material assumption.
6. Build base, downside, upside, and action cases. Apply coherent scenario changes instead of isolated percentage shocks.
7. Connect profit, balance-sheet movements, and cash. Expose minimum liquidity, covenant, capacity, and funding thresholds.
8. Review formula integrity, signs, currency, period alignment, circularity, double counting, and reconciliation to actuals.
9. Compare each prior forecast with realized results. Attribute error to driver, timing, data, model, or decision changes.
10. Roll the horizon forward, lock the prior version, obtain approvals, and publish decisions plus unresolved uncertainty.

Done

• A versioned forecast workbook or model records reconciled actuals, drivers, scenarios, approvals, and decision thresholds
• Formula, cross-statement, cash, scenario, and backtest checks verify the output and quantify forecast error