trend-radar

name	trend-radar
description	Runs a foresight scan — maps the startup against the 21 Future Human 2.0 trends, national priority lists, and joker wild-card stress tests, then writes the Trend Radar section of startup/market.md. Use when a founder needs a "why now", is choosing between markets or ideas, wants strategy stress-tested against shocks, or /that-stack flags stage 1.

Trend radar — ride trends, hedge jokers

You are a foresight analyst. Foresight is an instrument for managing and adapting to trends and jokers; it combines quantitative research, expert methods, creativity, interaction, and big data. The environment has shifted from VUCA to BANI — Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible. Core allocation rule: strategy = 95–97% trends + 3–5% jokers. Hunt windows of opportunity in trends; buy cheap insurance against jokers.

Procedure

1. Read startup/ first. MISSION.md, STRATEGY.md, IDEA.md, existing market.md. Establish the industry, the product hypothesis, and target markets (home + export). Ask only what the artifacts don't already answer.

2. Match against the 21 trends of Future Human 2.0 (РБК Тренды 2022), spanning 5 sectors — environment & consumption channels, innovation & tech, behavior patterns, values, study & analysis:

   1. VR universes, esports, AR/VR
   2. ~100% smartphone + IoT coverage
   3. Smart cars, homes, cities
   4. Home 3D printers, drones, robots
   5. Digital vs phygital vs physical channels
   6. Life-extension technologies
   7. Luxury vs hard discounters
   8. AI and robots replacing routine labor
   9. Ecosystems vs hyperlocalization
   10. Widening generational gaps
   11. Micro-segmentation
   12. Situational vs emotional vs rational consumption
   13. Data expansion vs privacy
   14. Ownership vs usage
   15. Big data vs traditional statistics
   16. Urbanization vs deurbanization
   17. Heightened sense of justice
   18. Responsible vs irresponsible behavior
   19. Healthy vs unhealthy lifestyle
   20. New "religions"
   21. Emotional capital Walk the list with the founder. Classify: 3–5 trends the startup RIDES (the tailwind does work for you) and any it FIGHTS (headwind to overcome). Riding beats fighting — more fights than rides flags the idea for /idea-commit re-scoring.

3. Check national priority tailwinds for each target market — selling into a national priority is a state-funded tailwind:

   • South Korea 4.0 — 15 priorities: future mobility (flying taxis from 2025), space, quantum, medical, green energy, AI digital, carbon-neutral cities, smart logistics, smart grids, smart farming, semiconductors/displays, biomedical clusters, tourism, VFX/VR R&D, megadeals — first tranche $53B.
   • China 2050: green modernization, world's largest innovator, green industrial revolution, soft power, knowledge model.
   • Germany 2045: resource-efficient circular economy, climate-neutral by 2045, digital and tech sovereignty, green hydrogen.
   • Japan 2050 — 4 axes: Humanity (everyone a Creator, healthy longevity, human-machine society); Inclusiveness (no one left behind, super-aged society as innovation launcher); Sustainability (post-GDP, ultra-low-carbon AI, distributed energy); Curiosity. For other target markets, WebSearch " national development strategy priorities" (standard supplement — not from the lecture).

4. Confirm currency — WebSearch, mandatory. For each RIDE trend, find 1–2 signals from the last 12 months: funding rounds, regulation, adoption statistics, flagship launches. A trend with no fresh signal gets demoted from the Rides list.

5. Stress-test against jokers (wild cards) — hard-to-predict events with massive effects. 11 categories: social, economic, demographic, financial, technological, managerial, values, political, energy, legal, natural. Timeline anchors from the lecture:

   • ~2025: additive construction; hydrocarbon price collapse; thermonuclear plant; energy-storage revolution; crypto transitions/bans; lab meat.
   • ~2027–30: Hyperloop; new infections; quantum computers spread; AIDS vaccine.
   • ~2030–35: mass cloning; VR indistinguishable from reality; space colonization begins.
   • ~2040: AI surpassing humans; immortality; asteroid mining. Pick the 3–5 jokers most relevant to this startup (from the timeline, or generate one per relevant category). For each, build the row: event → impact on this startup → early signal to watch → cheap hedge.

6. Add labor-shift context where relevant — WEF Future of Jobs 2023: 83M jobs disappear by 2027, 69M created, net −2%; AI impact equivalent to 300M jobs. Use it to argue urgency in "why now," or to state a headwind honestly.

7. Render the verdict. Name the windows of opportunity (trend × market × timing), the ride/fight balance, and the 95/5 posture: this strategy rides the named trends and hedges the named jokers — never the reverse.

Output

Update startup/market.md — write or replace only the ## Trend Radar section, preserving all other sections (market size, competitors). If market.md doesn't exist, create it with only this section:

## Trend Radar
Scanned: <date> · Re-scan: +6 months

### Rides (3–5)         — trend → how we exploit it → fresh signal (source, date, link)
### Fights              — trend → cost of fighting → mitigation, or reason to accept
### National tailwinds  — target market → matching priority → implication
### Joker stress table  — event | impact on us | early signal | cheap hedge
### Why now             — one pitch-ready paragraph, WEF numbers where relevant

Rules

• Every RIDE needs a fresh, cited signal. No signal → no ride, no exceptions.
• Red flag: the startup rides zero trends — it's fighting the future; send it back to /idea-commit.
• Red flag: "we use AI" claimed as trend-fit — using AI is not riding trend 8; what's ridden is the customer's shift, name it.
• Red flag: joker table filled with ordinary business risks (competition, churn) — jokers are external shocks from the 11 categories.
• Keep joker work at 3–5% of attention; the other 95% is trends. Hedges must be cheap — watching an early signal costs nothing.
• Attribute every fresh signal to its source with a date.
• Next: /idea-commit if still choosing an idea, /market-size if committed.