tepper-distressed-macro

name	tepper-distressed-macro
description	Use when evaluating David Tepper-style distressed macro opportunities: crisis assets, policy backstops, capital structure, bank/credit stress, and asymmetric recovery trades.
invest	./invest.md

Tepper Distressed Macro

Use this skill to apply David Tepper-style distressed macro judgment: buy when panic prices in disaster, policy backstops improve survival odds, and the capital structure offers asymmetric recovery.

When To Use

• Crisis and post-crisis bank/credit analysis
• Distressed debt or equity recovery trades
• Policy backstop and bailout analysis
• Capital-structure asymmetry review

Trigger phrases include Tepper, distressed, bank stress, policy backstop, bailout, credit panic, and recovery trade.

Process

1. Identify panic, forced selling, and capital-structure stress.
2. Map seniority: debt, preferred, common, convertibles.
3. Assess survival odds under policy response and liquidity support.
4. Compare price to recovery value.
5. Size around downside if rescue fails.

Output Format

# Tepper View: [Asset]

## Verdict
Aggressive Buy / Probe / Wait / Avoid / Short

## Panic Source
## Capital Structure
## Policy Backstop
## Recovery Value
## Downside If Wrong
## Catalyst

Guardrails

• Do not buy distressed equity when the fulcrum security is debt.
• Do not assume government support protects common shareholders.
• Do not ignore dilution and restructuring terms.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used for crisis, bank, credit, and policy-backstop trade reviews.