pm-situation-framing

name	pm-situation-framing
description	Direct-invocation-only; never auto-load. Use only when explicitly named to create or update a PMKNB situation frame.
metadata	{"category":"prediction markets","blurb":"Reusable PMKNB situation frame: separates facts from hypotheses, maps actors, gates, clocks, cruxes, observables, and update rules.","keywords":["pm","situation","framing"]}

PM Situation Framing

Create a durable, isolated reasoning guide for a PMKNB situation. A situation frame is not evidence, not a forecast, and not a report. It is a structured model that helps later agents reason, research, and update without mixing facts with interpretation.

Core Rules

• Keep the frame separate from evidence. Frame judgments are hypotheses until separately sourced.
• Never turn unsourced interpretation into a claim about the world.
• Label every material statement as Sourced fact, Frame judgment, Inference, or Speculation.
• State what would change the frame, not merely what would support it.
• Prefer gates, keyholders, actors, incentives, clocks, constraints, and observables over narrative summary.
• Use confidence for the frame's reasoning quality, not for the market outcome.
• Mark uncertainty explicitly. Do not hide cruxes behind smooth prose.
• Keep the frame compact enough for later agents to reuse.

Build Process

1. Define the frame boundary: what the frame covers and excludes.
2. Write a falsifiable frame thesis: the current best model of what drives the situation.
3. Identify resolution pathways: gates, choices, decisions, or facts that could resolve the market.
4. Map actors:
   • actor model: wants, fears, beliefs, constraints, capacities, incentives, action menu.
   • power map: who can make, block, delay, force, legitimate, enforce, or route the outcome.
5. Surface structure:
   • gates and keyholders
   • pressure points
   • choice points
   • clocks
   • implementation gaps
   • legibility gaps
6. Identify cruxes, misread risks, observables, and tripwires.
7. Set evidence standards and update rules.

Evidence Contamination Rules

Use these labels strictly:

• Sourced fact: externally supported claim already present in the evidence context.
• Frame judgment: analyst view of what matters or how structure fits together.
• Inference: reasoning from sourced facts, labeled as reasoning.
• Speculation: plausible but weakly supported possibility.

Rules:

• Do not cite the frame as evidence.
• Do not introduce factual claims unless they are sourced in the active evidence context.
• Do not let actor-model language become factual language.
• Do not write naked predictions. Mark them as frame judgments, inferences, or speculation.
• For every important unsourced claim, replace the claim with Evidence needed.
• Later agents must separately source any factual claim before using it in research, reports, forecasts, or market-resolution analysis.

Never write:

Actor X will block the outcome.

Prefer:

Frame judgment: Actor X is a likely blocker if its incentives remain aligned against the outcome. Evidence needed: public statement, filing, vote behavior, procedural action, or other observable opposition.

Output Template

# Situation Frame: [market/situation name]

## Frame Boundary
Covers:
Excludes:

## Frame Thesis
[1-3 sentences. Falsifiable. Label any judgment, inference, or speculation.]

## Resolution Pathways
1. [Pathway name]: [gates -> keyholders -> possible resolution route]
2. [Pathway name]: [gates -> keyholders -> possible resolution route]

## Actor / Power Map
| Actor | Wants / Fears | Constraints | Power Over Outcome | Likely Action Menu | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  | Sourced fact / Frame judgment / Inference / Speculation |

## Gates, Clocks, and Pressure Points
| Item | Type | Keyholder | Why It Matters | Observable | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  | gate / clock / pressure point |  |  |  | Sourced fact / Frame judgment / Inference / Speculation |

## Cruxes
1. [Uncertainty that would materially change the frame]
2. [Uncertainty that would materially change the frame]

## Misread Risks
- [Tempting but possibly wrong story, analogy, or causal model]
- [Source interpretation risk]

## Evidence Standard
What should count:
What should not count:
Evidence needed:

## Update Rules
- If [observable], update toward [frame change].
- If [observable], update away from [frame change].
- If [absence by clock/deadline], update by [rule].

## Tripwires
- [High-impact observable requiring immediate reframing or escalation]

## Research Posture
Best source classes:
Noisy / delayed / adversarial source classes:
Next research moves:

## Frame Confidence
[Low / Medium / High] - confidence in the frame structure, not the market outcome.
Reason:

Pressure Modes

Use only when relevant:

• Fast-moving news: prioritize tripwires, clocks, and update rules over complete prose.
• Thin evidence: make legibility gaps explicit; do not fill gaps with confident narrative.
• Narrative capture: separate actor messaging from actor constraints.
• Formal announcement risk: check implementation gaps before treating announcements as execution.
• Procedural market: identify keyholders, gates, and deadlines before discussing incentives.

Quality Bar

A good situation frame:

• Has a clear boundary and falsifiable thesis.
• Names who can move, block, delay, force, or legitimate the outcome.
• Identifies gates and keyholders instead of only summarizing events.
• Includes observables that would actually update the frame.
• Contains at least one misread risk.
• Separates sourced facts, inferences, speculation, and frame judgments.
• Avoids forecasting language unless explicitly labeled as a hypothesis.
• Is reusable by a later agent without trust in hidden reasoning.