| name | hypothesis-ledger-pattern |
| description | Shared append-only hypothesis ledger pattern. Defines schema, operations, and rules for S-###/H-###/C-###/CT-### ledgers across SEO, marketing, CRM, and content domains. |
| metadata | {"version":"1.3.0","git_hash":"c05387b"} |
Hypothesis Ledger Pattern
Every action across every domain is logged as a falsifiable hypothesis with a measurable outcome. This pattern defines the shared infrastructure. Domain ledgers (SEO, marketing, CRM) configure it with their own prefix, window, path, and metrics.
Principle
No action without a hypothesis. No hypothesis without a metric. No metric without a baseline. Every row is append-only. History is never rewritten.
Storage
Each domain stores its ledger at:
/var/www/html/systemprompt-web/reports/{domain}/data/hypothesis-ledger.md
Single markdown file. One table. Newest rows at the bottom.
Schema
| id | logged | channel | action | hypothesis | metric | baseline | window_end | result | status | notes |
| Field | Description |
|---|
| id | {PREFIX}-### sequential, zero-padded to 3 digits. Each domain has its own namespace. |
| logged | YYYY-MM-DD the action was taken. |
| channel | Domain-specific enum (see domain config below). |
| action | One-line past-tense description. Full draft goes in data/actions/{PREFIX}-###.md. |
| hypothesis | "If ... then ... within ..." statement, trimmed to one line. Must be falsifiable. |
| metric | Exact field name from the domain's metric whitelist (validated on append). |
| baseline | Numeric value of metric at the moment of logging. |
| window_end | YYYY-MM-DD when the hypothesis matures. Uses domain default window. |
| result | Numeric value of metric at window_end. Empty while in-flight. |
| status | IN-FLIGHT, SEEDED, PASS, FAIL, INCONCLUSIVE, or ABORTED. |
| notes | Free text, max 140 characters. |
Status Lifecycle
SEEDED → IN-FLIGHT → PASS | FAIL | INCONCLUSIVE
→ ABORTED (if conditions change before window_end)
- SEEDED: hypothesis logged but prerequisites not yet met (e.g., waiting for indexing)
- IN-FLIGHT: action taken, waiting for window_end
- PASS/FAIL/INCONCLUSIVE: scored at or after window_end
Action Text Store
Full context for each action lives in:
reports/{domain}/data/actions/{PREFIX}-###.md
Each file contains: timestamp, what was changed, before/after values, target URLs, measurement notes.
Operations
Every domain ledger implements these 6 operations:
| Operation | Description |
|---|
next-id | Allocate the next sequential {PREFIX}-### ID |
log {fields} | Append new row + write actions/{PREFIX}-###.md |
in-flight | Return rows where status = IN-FLIGHT |
maturing {date} | Return rows where window_end <= date AND status = IN-FLIGHT |
score {id} {result} {status} {note} | Close out a hypothesis row |
stats | Pass/fail tally by channel |
Log operation
- Allocate next ID via
next-id.
- Pull current value of
metric from the domain's data source (monitor report, GSC data, analytics).
- Validate
metric is in the domain's whitelist. Reject if not.
- Append row to ledger with status = IN-FLIGHT or SEEDED.
- Write
actions/{PREFIX}-###.md with full context.
- Return the assigned ID.
Score operation
- Read the row, confirm status is IN-FLIGHT.
- Append a new row with the same ID and closed-out values. Never edit existing rows.
- If PASS, emit a diff suggestion for the strategy master's Winning Tactics section.
- If FAIL, emit a diff suggestion for the Dead Hypotheses section.
Anti-Sludge Rules
- Every hypothesis must be falsifiable: it must name a specific metric, a baseline, and a target direction.
- Every metric must come from the domain's validated whitelist. No invented metrics.
- Rows are never edited in place. Corrections are appended as new rows.
- No hypothesis without a measurable outcome. "Improve brand awareness" is not a hypothesis.
- No action without a logged hypothesis. If you take an action, log it.
Domain Configuration
| Config | SEO | Marketing | CRM | Content |
|---|
| Prefix | S-### | H-### | C-### | CT-### |
| Default window | 14 days | 7 days | 14 days | 14 days |
| Storage path | reports/seo/data/ | reports/marketing/data/ | reports/crm/data/ | reports/content/data/ |
| Actions path | reports/seo/data/actions/ | reports/marketing/data/actions/ | reports/crm/data/actions/ | reports/content/data/actions/ |
| Metric source | GSC + DataForSEO + daily-seo-brief | lead-tracker + analytics | pipeline-tracker + lead-enrichment | daily-seo-brief |
| Strategy master | seo-strategy-master | marketing-strategy-master | crm-strategy-master | content-strategy-master |
| Channels | seo, content, technical, linking, indexing, ctr | reddit, linkedin, x, hn, crates, website, email, seo, ai-agent | pipeline, email, enrichment, outreach | optimisation, new-guide, revision, distribution, technical |
Note: Social media uses the marketing ledger (H-### prefix). Social hypotheses are a subset of marketing hypotheses, not a separate ledger.
Domain ledger skills (seo:seo-hypothesis-ledger, commons:marketing-hypothesis-ledger, crm:crm-hypothesis-ledger, content:content-hypothesis-ledger) reference this pattern and add their specific metric whitelist and channel enum.
