| name | research-playbook |
| description | How to use the search_web tool well when grounding a forecast in recent news — phrase cutoff-aware queries, decide what is worth searching for, and weigh sources. Load this before your first search_web call. No scripts. |
Research playbook
A short guide to getting real signal out of search_web. This is a starter
skill — extend it with the queries and sources that work for your problem.
The one rule that matters
Always pass cutoff_date equal to the as_of date in your payload. It is the
temporal fence that keeps post-origin information out of a historical forecast.
A forecast that "knew" what happened after as_of is not a forecast.
search_web runs an independent verifier on every result and returns
[SEARCH_VERIFICATION_FAILED] instead of content it couldn't confirm as
pre-cutoff. Treat that as no verified news for the query — proceed on your
other signals and say so, never filling the gap from your own background
knowledge.
How to search
- Search before you forecast, not after. Gather context first, then reason.
- One topic per query. Several focused queries beat one broad one. Stop when
new queries stop returning new facts.
- Ask for the present state, not a prediction. "current OPEC+ production
policy" returns facts; "will oil go up" returns noise.
- Weigh sources. Prefer primary releases and major outlets; treat a single
blog or forum post as a lead to confirm, not a fact.
Domain focus (edit this for your use case)
For S&P 500 returns, the signals: the rate path and Fed guidance, recent
inflation and jobs prints, the VIX and credit spreads, earnings-season tone, and
major geopolitical or policy shocks. Search for the current state of these,
then remember returns are close to a random walk — be humble about direction.
Room to grow
- Add a curated list of go-to sources for your domain.
- Track which queries paid off and prune the ones that didn't.
- Add a
references/ file with example high-signal searches.
