| name | crossover-arbitrage-strategy |
| description | Use when evaluating whether to crack and resubmit a graded card to a different grader for higher value. Includes EV formula and risk model.
|
Crossover Arbitrage
EV = (P_higher × higher_price) − (P_lower × lower_price) − fees − damage_risk. Crack only when EV exceeds current market by >15%.
The crossover EV formula
Example: BGS 9.5 with sub-grades 9.5-10-9.5-10. Crack and submit PSA:
- 50% PSA 10 ($300), 40% PSA 9 ($80), 10% damage ($30)
- EV = (0.5×300) + (0.4×80) + (0.1×30) − $35 = $150
- Current BGS 9.5: $120
- Crossover EV: +$30 (worth it)
When crossover pays
- BGS 9.5 with sub-grades ≥ 9.5-10-9.5-10 → PSA 10 (~50% hit rate)
- SGC 8 vintage → PSA 8 (no grade change, +5-15% liquidity)
- CGC 10 modern Pokemon → PSA 10 (~70% hit rate when CGC 10 issued)
- Old PSA 9 with strong sub-grade indicators → BGS 9.5+ Pristine candidate
When it loses money
- BGS 9 mixed sub-grades → PSA risk: typically 9, no premium
- SGC 9 vintage with paper toning → PSA may give 8 or qualify
- CGC 10 with sub-9.5 sub-grades → PSA almost certainly 9 or below
- 8.5/9 modern — resubmit fee + risk usually exceeds upside
Mechanical risk
Cracking damages: hairline scratch -1 to -2; edge nick -1; fingerprint cleanable. Use proper de-slabbing tools. Practice on a junk card first. NEVER touch bare-finger to surface during transfer.
Where this fits in the X3 empire
Direct CardPrepAI revenue tool: Crossover Arbitrage estimator. Customer pays for the analysis, walks away with EV and confidence intervals.
