temporal-sequencing

name	temporal-sequencing
description	Determine optimal ordering and phasing of portfolio investments using Real Options, Critical path, Dependency graph, and Staged investment methods.
dependencies	{"tactics":["pareto-frontier-construction","scenario-stress-testing"],"sops":["objective-definition","optimization-run","portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario","portfolio-synthesis","scenario-construction"]}

Temporal Sequencing

Purpose

Determine the optimal order, timing, and phasing of portfolio elements when dependencies, learning effects, and option value make sequencing matter as much as selection.

When to use

• Candidates have dependencies (A must precede B)
• Early investments create options for later ones
• Information gained from early bets informs later decisions
• Budget is released in phases over time
• Timing affects value (first-mover advantage, market windows)

Budget

Dimension	Target
Candidates sequenced	8-20
Time periods modeled	3-6 phases
Dependencies mapped	all critical
Decision points identified	>=2 stage-gates

State Ledger

Field	Type	Description
candidates	list	Candidates with timing attributes
dependencies	graph	Precedence relationships between candidates
phases	list	Time periods with budget allocations
option_values	list	Value of information/flexibility from early bets
sequence	list	Ordered plan with stage-gates

Available Tactics

Tactic	When
pareto-frontier-construction	Trading off speed vs cost vs risk in sequencing
scenario-stress-testing	Testing sequence robustness under timeline uncertainty

Available SOPs

SOP	Purpose
objective-definition	Define sequencing objectives and constraints
optimization-run	Find optimal sequences
scenario-construction	Model timeline uncertainties
portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario	Test sequence under delays/accelerations
portfolio-synthesis	Synthesize robust sequence recommendation

Execution Guidance

1. Map dependencies and precedence constraints
2. Identify option value — which early investments create future flexibility
3. Define phase budgets and stage-gate criteria
4. Optimize sequence considering dependencies, option value, and constraints
5. Stress-test sequence against timeline uncertainties
6. Build staged investment plan with decision points

Output Format

strategy: temporal-sequencing
sequence:
  - phase: 1
    candidates: [<name1>, <name2>]
    budget: <amount>
    stage_gate: <criteria for proceeding>
  - phase: 2
    candidates: [<name3>]
    budget: <amount>
    depends_on: [<phase 1 outcomes>]
critical_path: [<ordered candidates>]
option_values:
  - candidate: <name>
    options_created: [<future possibilities>]
method_used: <real-options|critical-path|staged-investment>

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
pareto-frontier-construction	Build the Pareto frontier from multi-objective optimization, visualize trade-offs, and select a portfolio from non-dominated solutions.
scenario-stress-testing	Construct distinct future scenarios, evaluate portfolio performance under each, and identify vulnerabilities and robustness characteristics.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
objective-definition	Define optimization objectives, constraints, and trade-off preferences from context and candidate information.
optimization-run	Execute multi-objective optimization on candidates to produce a Pareto front of non-dominated solutions.
portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario	Evaluate a specific portfolio's performance metrics and vulnerabilities under a given scenario.
portfolio-synthesis	Synthesize all per-scenario evaluations into a final portfolio recommendation with robustness score and actionable guidance.
scenario-construction	Construct distinct future scenarios spanning key uncertainties for portfolio stress testing.