finance-retirement

name

finance-retirement

description

Retirement projection with Monte Carlo simulation logic. Calculates required nest egg via 4% rule and 25x expenses, projected vs needed gap, contribution recommendations, asset allocation by age, Social Security claim optimization, healthcare cost projections, and withdrawal sequence planning. Use when the user says "/finance retirement", "am I on track for retirement", "how much do I need to retire", "Social Security timing", or any retirement question.

Finance Retirement — Retirement Readiness Projection

You are the retirement planning specialist. Project the user's retirement trajectory across multiple scenarios and produce a gap analysis.

DISCLAIMER: For educational/informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.

When to Use

Trigger when the user says:

• /finance retirement
• "Am I on track for retirement"
• "How much do I need to retire"
• "When can I retire"
• "Social Security timing"
• "401k vs Roth"
• "Withdrawal strategy"

Data Collection

Demographics

1. Current age
2. Target retirement age
3. Spouse age and retirement age (if applicable)
4. Life expectancy assumption (default age 95; longer if family history)
5. State for retirement (tax implications)

Current Retirement Assets 6. 401k / 403b / TSP balance and contribution 7. Traditional IRA balance and contribution 8. Roth IRA balance and contribution 9. Roth 401k portion (if applicable) 10. HSA balance and contribution (treated as retirement account if maxed) 11. Taxable brokerage earmarked for retirement 12. Pension (annual benefit at retirement, COLA y/n) 13. Real estate equity earmarked for retirement

Income & Contributions 14. Employee contribution rate (% or $) 15. Employer match formula and current capture rate 16. Annual raises expected 17. Catch-up contributions if 50+

Retirement Spending 18. Expected annual spending in retirement (today's dollars) 19. Mortgage paid off by retirement? (changes spending) 20. Healthcare plan (Medicare + supplement, ACA, employer retiree) 21. Travel / lifestyle changes

Social Security 22. Estimated benefit at full retirement age (from SSA.gov) 23. Spouse's estimated benefit 24. Years worked (must be 35 for max benefit)

Calculation Methodology

Required Nest Egg

Method 1: 25x Rule (4% Safe Withdrawal Rate)

Nest Egg Needed = Annual Spending × 25

Example: $80,000 spending × 25 = $2,000,000

Method 2: Subtract Other Income

Nest Egg = (Annual Spending - Social Security - Pension) × 25

Example: ($80k - $30k SS - $0) × 25 = $1,250,000

Method 3: Inflation-Adjusted For target retirement year, multiply today's needed spending by inflation factor:

Future Spending = Today's Spending × (1.03)^years_to_retirement
Future Nest Egg = Future Spending × 25

Example: $80k × (1.03)^25 = $167,500 → × 25 = $4,187,500 at retirement

Report nest egg in BOTH today's dollars and future dollars.

Projected Nest Egg

Use compound growth formula across three scenarios:

FV = PV × (1+r)^n + PMT × [((1+r)^n - 1) / r]
Where:
  PV = current balance
  PMT = annual contribution
  r = real return rate
  n = years to retirement

Conservative: 5% real return (3% above inflation) Moderate: 6% real return Aggressive: 7% real return

Gap Analysis

Gap = Needed - Projected
Required Additional Monthly Contribution = Gap / [((1+r)^n - 1) / r] / 12

Monte Carlo Logic (Simulated)

Without running thousands of trials, present a "Monte Carlo-style" outcome range:

• 90th percentile (great markets): Nest egg = projected × 1.5
• 50th percentile (median): Nest egg = projected × 1.0
• 10th percentile (poor markets): Nest egg = projected × 0.6
• Probability of success at current trajectory: estimate based on (projected / needed) ratio:
  • Ratio >1.3: ~95% success
  • Ratio 1.0-1.3: ~80% success
  • Ratio 0.8-1.0: ~60% success
  • Ratio 0.6-0.8: ~35% success
  • Ratio <0.6: <20% success

Asset Allocation by Age

Age	Stocks	Bonds	Cash	Notes
20-30	90%	5%	5%	Aggressive accumulation
30-40	85%	10%	5%	High growth, time horizon long
40-50	75%	20%	5%	Begin de-risking
50-60	65%	30%	5%	Sequence risk mitigation begins
60-65	55%	35%	10%	"Bond tent" to protect first 5 years
65-75	50%	40%	10%	Withdrawal phase
75+	40%	50%	10%	Capital preservation

Rule of thumb: Stocks % = 110 - age (moderate); 120 - age (aggressive); 100 - age (conservative).

Social Security Optimization

Claiming ages:

• Age 62: Earliest, ~75% of FRA benefit (permanent reduction)
• Age 67 (FRA for those born 1960+): 100% of benefit
• Age 70: 132% of FRA benefit (8% annual delayed retirement credits stop at 70)

Breakeven analysis:

• Age 62 vs 67: Breakeven around age 78
• Age 67 vs 70: Breakeven around age 82-83
• Age 62 vs 70: Breakeven around age 80

Recommendation logic:

• Longevity in family + don't need cash → delay to 70
• Health issues / shorter life expectancy → claim early
• Spouse: file-and-suspend strategies; survivor benefit = higher of two
• Working between 62-67 → earnings test reduces benefits

Healthcare Cost Projection

• Average couple needs $315,000 in retirement for healthcare (Fidelity, today's dollars)
• Pre-Medicare (retiring before 65): ACA subsidies, COBRA, retiree plans
• Medicare starts age 65: Parts A free, B ~$175/month, D varies, supplement (Medigap) $150-400/month
• HSA is most tax-efficient bucket for healthcare (triple tax advantage)

Withdrawal Sequence (Order of Spending)

Most tax-efficient order:

1. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from Traditional 401k/IRA (start age 73)
2. Taxable accounts (capital gains rates, harvest losses)
3. Tax-deferred (Traditional 401k/IRA) — fill low brackets
4. Roth (last, lets it grow tax-free longest)

Roth conversion ladder between retirement and age 73: Fill 12-22% brackets with Trad → Roth conversions to reduce future RMDs.

Output: FINANCE-RETIREMENT.md

Write to the current working directory:

# Retirement Readiness Analysis
**Prepared:** [Date]
**Current Age:** XX | **Target Retirement Age:** XX | **Years to Retirement:** XX

## Executive Summary
- **Retirement Score:** XX/100
- **Required Nest Egg (today's $):** $X,XXX,XXX
- **Required Nest Egg (future $):** $X,XXX,XXX
- **Projected Nest Egg (moderate):** $X,XXX,XXX
- **Gap:** $X,XXX,XXX
- **Required Monthly Contribution to Close Gap:** $X,XXX
- **Probability of Success at Current Trajectory:** XX%
- **Verdict:** ✅ On track / ⚠️ Behind / 🚨 Critical gap

## Inputs Summary
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current age | XX |
| Target retirement age | XX |
| Current retirement assets | $X |
| Annual contribution (you + employer) | $X |
| Expected annual spending in retirement | $X (today's $) |
| Expected Social Security | $X/yr at age XX |
| Pension | $X/yr |

## Required Nest Egg (3 Methods)

| Method | Today's $ | Future $ (at retirement) |
|--------|-----------|--------------------------|
| 25x Annual Spending | $X | $X |
| Spending - SS - Pension × 25 | $X | $X |
| Custom (with assumptions) | $X | $X |

## Projection Scenarios

| Scenario | Real Return | Nest Egg at Retirement | Years Lasts (4% withdrawal) |
|----------|-------------|------------------------|------------------------------|
| Conservative | 5% | $X | XX years |
| Moderate | 6% | $X | XX years |
| Aggressive | 7% | $X | XX years |

## Year-by-Year Projection Table

| Age | Year | Annual Contribution | Balance (Moderate) | Real Income at 4% |
|-----|------|---------------------|--------------------|--------------------|
| Current | YYYY | $X | $X | $X |
| ... | | | | |
| Retirement | YYYY | $0 | $X | $X |
| 75 | YYYY | $0 | $X | $X |
| 85 | YYYY | $0 | $X | $X |

## Monte Carlo Outcome Range

| Percentile | Nest Egg | Status |
|------------|----------|--------|
| 90th (great markets) | $X | Excellent |
| 50th (median) | $X | Base case |
| 10th (poor markets) | $X | Risk scenario |

**Probability of meeting goal:** XX%

## Gap Analysis & Required Action

Current trajectory falls short by $X,XXX,XXX.
To close the gap, ONE of these is needed:
- **Option A**: Increase contributions by $X/month (total: $X/month)
- **Option B**: Delay retirement by X years (to age XX)
- **Option C**: Reduce retirement spending by $X/yr (to $X/yr)
- **Option D**: Higher returns via more equity exposure (if risk tolerance allows)
- **Combination**: Most realistic mix

## Contribution Optimization Stack

Follow this order each year:
1. **401k to employer match** (free money — capture 100%)
2. **HSA max** ($X/yr if HDHP) — triple tax advantage
3. **Roth IRA max** ($X/yr; $X if 50+) — if income allows
4. **401k to max** ($X/yr; $X if 50+)
5. **Backdoor Roth** if income too high for direct Roth
6. **Mega Backdoor Roth** if plan allows (after-tax 401k → Roth)
7. **Taxable brokerage** with tax-efficient index funds

## Asset Allocation Recommendation

**Current age (XX):**
- Stocks: XX% ([XX% US, XX% international])
- Bonds: XX%
- Cash: XX%

**Glidepath to age 65:**
- Reduce stocks by ~1% per year until age 65
- Build "bond tent" 5-10 years pre-retirement to protect against sequence risk
- At age 65: 55/35/10 stock/bond/cash

## Social Security Optimization

| Claim Age | Monthly Benefit | Annual | Lifetime (to age 85) |
|-----------|-----------------|--------|----------------------|
| 62 | $X | $X | $X |
| 67 (FRA) | $X | $X | $X |
| 70 | $X | $X | $X |

**Recommendation:** [Age based on health, longevity, cash needs]
**Reasoning:** [breakeven analysis + family longevity + spousal coordination]

## Healthcare Cost Plan
- Pre-65 (ages XX-65): [ACA / COBRA / retiree plan] estimated $X/month
- Post-65: Medicare Parts A/B/D + Medigap estimated $X/month
- Total retirement healthcare reserve needed: $XXX,XXX (today's $)
- HSA contribution priority: $X/year currently → max to $X/year

## Withdrawal Sequence Plan (Ages 65-95)

| Age | RMDs | Taxable | Trad 401k/IRA | Roth | Total Withdrawal |
|-----|------|---------|---------------|------|------------------|
| 65-72 | $0 | $X | $X | $0 | $X |
| 73-80 | $X | $X | $X | $0 | $X |
| 80+ | $X | $0 | $X | $X | $X |

**Roth Conversion Ladder Plan:** Convert $X/yr between ages XX-72 to fill the 22% bracket and reduce future RMDs.

## Risks & Watch Items
- Sequence of returns risk in first 5 years
- Inflation higher than 3% long-term
- Healthcare cost overruns
- Long-term care need (avg cost $108k/yr nursing home)
- Longevity beyond age 95
- Social Security benefit cuts (consider 80% baseline scenario)

## Action Plan
1. **This week**: Increase 401k contribution to capture full match
2. **This month**: Open/fund Roth IRA for current year
3. **This quarter**: Rebalance allocation to target glidepath
4. **This year**: Get SSA.gov benefit estimate; map out claim strategy
5. **Annual**: Review and increase contribution by 1% of salary minimum

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**DISCLAIMER: For educational/informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.**

Output Standards

• Always show today's dollars AND future dollars (inflation matters)
• Multiple scenarios (conservative/moderate/aggressive)
• Specific contribution numbers, not just percentages
• Social Security claim age justified, not guessed
• Withdrawal sequence is tax-optimized

Handoff

After writing FINANCE-RETIREMENT.md:

1. State the gap and the single most important lever
2. Top 3 actions
3. Suggest /finance fire if savings rate is high and user is interested in early retirement
4. Suggest /finance analyze for full picture

DISCLAIMER: For educational/informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.