monitor-polymarket

> **${var}** — Platform selector with an optional single-market override: > - **empty** (`""`) — run **both** platforms from their watchlists. > - `polymarket` — run Polymarket's whole watchlist (`skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md`). > - `kalshi` — run Kalshi's whole watchlist (`skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md`). > - `polymarket:<event-slug>` — one ad-hoc Polymarket event (e.g. `polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by`). > - `kalshi:<event-ticker>` — one ad-hoc Kalshi event (e.g. `kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2`). Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context. Read the last 2 days of `memory/logs/` to compare against previous readings and flag *new* movers (not repeats of yesterday's news). ## Why this skill exists A table of prices isn't useful. An operator reading this notification wants to answer: **"is there a market worth forming a view on right now, and why?"** Every rule below exists to push output toward that question — suppress noise, rank by decision value, and demand one line of reasoning per alert. This skill covers two venues — **Polymarket** (crypto-native, CLOB + comments) and **Kalshi** (regulated, liquidity-weighted signals) — and dispatches to the branch(es) the selector asks for. ## Dispatch Parse `${var}` into a platform choice and an optional single-market override, then run the matching branch(es). ```bash PLATFORM="both" # both | polymarket | kalshi SINGLE="" # optional single event slug (Polymarket) or ticker (Kalshi) case "${var}" in "") PLATFORM="both" ;; polymarket) PLATFORM="polymarket" ;; kalshi) PLATFORM="kalshi" ;; polymarket:*) PLATFORM="polymarket"; SINGLE="${var#polymarket:}" ;; kalshi:*) PLATFORM="kalshi"; SINGLE="${var#kalshi:}" ;; *) # unrecognised prefix — don't guess a venue; fall back to both watchlists PLATFORM="both"; SINGLE="" echo "unrecognised selector '${var}' — running both watchlists" ;; esac ``` - `PLATFORM=both` → run the **Polymarket branch** and the **Kalshi branch**, each from its own watchlist, then emit a combined notification. - `PLATFORM=polymarket` → run only the Polymarket branch (whole watchlist, or `SINGLE` if set). - `PLATFORM=kalshi` → run only the Kalshi branch (whole watchlist, or `SINGLE` if set). Each branch below is independently executable — skip the one(s) the selector didn't ask for. --- # Polymarket branch Data source: Polymarket **gamma-api** (events, comments) + **clob** (price history). All endpoints are **public — no auth**. Watchlist: `skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md`. Each line is an event slug; add or remove slugs to change what's monitored. ## P1. Load watchlist ```bash if [ -n "$SINGLE" ]; then SLUGS="$SINGLE" else # One slug per line, skip comments and blanks SLUGS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md | grep -v '^$') fi ``` If the watchlist is empty and no single slug was given, there's nothing to do on Polymarket — note it and move on (don't fabricate a report). ## P2. For each event, fetch markets and price history For each event slug in `$SLUGS`: **a) Get the event and its markets:** ```bash curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=$SLUG&limit=1" ``` The response contains the event `id`, `title`, and a `markets` array. Each market has: - `id`, `question`, `slug`, `closed` - `outcomePrices` — JSON array, index 0 = YES price (0.0–1.0) - `volume24hr`, `volumeNum`, `liquidityNum` - `clobTokenIds` — JSON array, index 0 = YES token, index 1 = NO token **Skip closed markets** — they've already resolved. **b) Get 24h price history for each open market:** ```bash # YES token is index 0 of clobTokenIds TOKEN_ID=$(echo "$CLOB_TOKEN_IDS" | python3 -c "import json,sys; print(json.loads(sys.stdin.read())[0])") curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=$TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60" ``` Response: `{ "history": [{ "t": unix_timestamp, "p": "price_string" }, ...] }` **c) Calculate 24h stats for each market:** - **Open / Close** — first and last price in the history - **Change** — close minus open, in percentage points (e.g. +4.0pp) - **High / Low** — intraday range - **Volume** — `volume24hr` from the market data - **Direction** — classify as: surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5pp), stable (−2 to +2pp), falling (−5 to −2pp), crashing (<−5pp) ## P3. Fetch comments For each event, get top comments and latest comments: ```bash EVENT_ID=... # from step P2a # Top comments by reactions curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false" # Latest comments (last 24h chatter) curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=createdAt&ascending=false" ``` **Important:** `parent_entity_type` must be `Event` (capital E). Each comment has: `body`, `profile.username` (often null → use "anon"), `reactionCount`, `createdAt`. From the combined results, pick the **3 most interesting comments** per event: - New comments from the last 24h get priority (they react to recent moves) - High-reaction comments that are still relevant - Contrarian takes, insider-sounding analysis, whale callouts, humor ## P4. Build the Polymarket report For each event, produce a summary block: ``` **[Event Title]** (event_id: N) | Market | YES | 24h Chg | High/Low | 24h Vol | |--------|-----|---------|----------|---------| | [question] | XX.X% | +X.Xpp ▲ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm | | [question] | XX.X% | -X.Xpp ▼ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm | ... Biggest mover: "[question]" — [direction] from X% to Y% Comments: - [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]" (X upvotes) - [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]" - [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]" ``` Flag any market that moved more than **5 percentage points** in 24h — these are the ones worth paying attention to. ## P5. Polymarket Network note `curl` works — there is no network sandbox. Use **WebFetch** as a fallback for a flaky public GET: - `WebFetch("https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=SLUG&limit=1")` - `WebFetch("https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60")` - `WebFetch("https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false")` - All Polymarket gamma-api / clob endpoints are public and need no auth headers. --- # Kalshi branch Data source: Kalshi **trade-api v2** at `https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2`. Despite the "elections" subdomain, this provides access to ALL Kalshi markets (economics, climate, tech, politics, etc.). All endpoints are **public — no auth required**. Watchlist: `skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md`. Each line is an event ticker; add or remove tickers to change what's monitored. ## K1. Load watchlist ```bash if [ -n "$SINGLE" ]; then TICKERS="$SINGLE" else TICKERS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md | grep -v '^$') fi ``` If the watchlist is empty and no single ticker was given, emit `MONITOR_KALSHI_NO_CONFIG`, notify with a one-line setup hint, and discover trending events for this run only: ```bash curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?status=open&with_nested_markets=true&limit=10" ``` Pick the 5 highest-volume events and monitor those. ## K2. For each event, fetch markets, prices, and liquidity For each event ticker: **a) Event + markets:** ```bash curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/$EVENT_TICKER?with_nested_markets=true" ``` Fields used: `event_ticker`, `title`, `category`, `mutually_exclusive`, `markets[]` with `ticker`, `title`, `subtitle`, `status`, `yes_bid`, `yes_ask`, `last_price`, `volume`, `volume_24h`, `open_interest`, `close_time`, `series_ticker`. **Skip non-open markets** (closed/settled are historical). **b) 24h candlesticks (batch where possible):** Prefer the batch endpoint — one call per event, not per market: ```bash END_TS=$(date -u +%s) START_TS=$((END_TS - 86400)) # Batch: up to 10,000 candlesticks total across requested tickers curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/candlesticks?tickers=$COMMA_SEP_MARKET_TICKERS&start_ts=$START_TS&end_ts=$END_TS&period_interval=60" ``` If the batch endpoint errors, fall back to the per-market endpoint: ```bash curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/$SERIES_TICKER/markets/$MARKET_TICKER/candlesticks?start_ts=$START_TS&end_ts=$END_TS&period_interval=60" ``` If both fail for a market, mark its source as `SRC=price_only` and use `last_price` vs yesterday's log entry. **c) Orderbook depth (liquidity / conviction signal):** ```bash curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/$MARKET_TICKER/orderbook?depth=10" ``` From the orderbook, compute: - `spread_pp` = `yes_ask − yes_bid` in percentage points. Wide spread = low conviction, thin book. - `depth_usd` = sum over top-10 bid levels of `price × size` (approximation, both sides). This scales how much weight to give a price. If orderbook fails, mark `SRC=no_book` and skip the conviction column for that market. ## K3. Compute per-market signals For each open market: - **implied_prob** = `last_price` as a percentage (0.62 → 62%). Report this, not cents. - **chg_pp** = `close − open` from candlesticks, in percentage points. - **high / low** = intraday range. - **vol_24h_usd** ≈ `volume_24h × avg(open, close)` (Kalshi reports contract count — convert so readers can compare across markets). - **spread_pp** and **depth_usd** from step K2c. - **move_score** = `|chg_pp| × log10(max(vol_24h_usd, 100))`. This is the key ranking signal — a 3pp move on a $200k market outranks a 5pp move on a $5k market. It prevents thin-book noise from dominating. **Direction label** (from chg_pp): surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5), stable (−2 to +2), falling (−5 to −2), crashing (<−5). **Conviction label** (from spread_pp): tight (<2pp), loose (2–5pp), thin (>5pp, treat price skeptically). ## K4. Decide what's worth saying — suppression rules Before building the report, drop markets that fail ALL of these gates: - `|chg_pp| >= 2` AND `vol_24h_usd >= $1,000`, OR - `vol_24h_usd >= $25,000` (large volume alone is signal even if price didn't move much), OR - `open_interest` grew >30% vs yesterday's log, if yesterday's log has the data. If a market appeared in yesterday's log with the same direction and a chg_pp within ±1pp of today's, treat it as "continued from yesterday" and demote it — mention once at the event level, don't re-alert. **Hard alert threshold:** `|chg_pp| >= 5` AND `conviction != thin`. These go to the ALERTS block and require a "why it matters" line. ## K5. Global ranking Rank events by the max `move_score` of any market within them. Cap the report at the **top 5 events**. Markets within an event are listed in descending `move_score` order, capped at 3 per event (mention "+N more" if truncated). ## K6. Build the Kalshi report ``` *Kalshi monitor — ${today}* verdict: [1 sentence — dominant theme or "all quiet"] **[Event Title]** (EVENT_TICKER) — category | Market | prob | Δ24h | range | vol | spread | |--------|------|------|-------|-----|--------| | [title] | 62% | +4.1pp ▲ | 56–65% | $82k | 1pp |