monitor-polymarket

name	monitor-polymarket
description	Monitor Polymarket and/or Kalshi prediction markets for 24h price moves, volume changes, fresh comments, and high-conviction alerts
metadata	{"title":"Monitor Prediction Markets","mode":"read-only","category":"crypto","var":"","tags":["crypto","research"]}

${var} — Platform selector with an optional single-market override:

• empty ("") — run both platforms from their watchlists.
• polymarket — run Polymarket's whole watchlist (skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md).
• kalshi — run Kalshi's whole watchlist (skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md).
• polymarket:<event-slug> — one ad-hoc Polymarket event (e.g. polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by).
• kalshi:<event-ticker> — one ad-hoc Kalshi event (e.g. kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2).

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. Read the last 2 days of memory/logs/ to compare against previous readings and flag new movers (not repeats of yesterday's news).

Why this skill exists

A table of prices isn't useful. An operator reading this notification wants to answer: "is there a market worth forming a view on right now, and why?" Every rule below exists to push output toward that question — suppress noise, rank by decision value, and demand one line of reasoning per alert. This skill covers two venues — Polymarket (crypto-native, CLOB + comments) and Kalshi (regulated, liquidity-weighted signals) — and dispatches to the branch(es) the selector asks for.

Dispatch

Parse ${var} into a platform choice and an optional single-market override, then run the matching branch(es).

PLATFORM="both"   # both | polymarket | kalshi
SINGLE=""         # optional single event slug (Polymarket) or ticker (Kalshi)

case "${var}" in
  "")            PLATFORM="both" ;;
  polymarket)   PLATFORM="polymarket" ;;
  kalshi)       PLATFORM="kalshi" ;;
  polymarket:*) PLATFORM="polymarket"; SINGLE="${var#polymarket:}" ;;
  kalshi:*)     PLATFORM="kalshi";     SINGLE="${var#kalshi:}" ;;
  *)            # unrecognised prefix — don't guess a venue; fall back to both watchlists
                PLATFORM="both"; SINGLE=""
                echo "unrecognised selector '${var}' — running both watchlists" ;;
esac

• PLATFORM=both → run the Polymarket branch and the Kalshi branch, each from its own watchlist, then emit a combined notification.
• PLATFORM=polymarket → run only the Polymarket branch (whole watchlist, or SINGLE if set).
• PLATFORM=kalshi → run only the Kalshi branch (whole watchlist, or SINGLE if set).

Each branch below is independently executable — skip the one(s) the selector didn't ask for.

---

Polymarket branch

Data source: Polymarket gamma-api (events, comments) + clob (price history). All endpoints are public — no auth.

Watchlist: skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md. Each line is an event slug; add or remove slugs to change what's monitored.

P1. Load watchlist

if [ -n "$SINGLE" ]; then
  SLUGS="$SINGLE"
else
  # One slug per line, skip comments and blanks
  SLUGS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md | grep -v '^$')
fi

If the watchlist is empty and no single slug was given, there's nothing to do on Polymarket — note it and move on (don't fabricate a report).

P2. For each event, fetch markets and price history

For each event slug in $SLUGS:

a) Get the event and its markets:

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=$SLUG&limit=1"

The response contains the event id, title, and a markets array. Each market has:

• id, question, slug, closed
• outcomePrices — JSON array, index 0 = YES price (0.0–1.0)
• volume24hr, volumeNum, liquidityNum
• clobTokenIds — JSON array, index 0 = YES token, index 1 = NO token

Skip closed markets — they've already resolved.

b) Get 24h price history for each open market:

# YES token is index 0 of clobTokenIds
TOKEN_ID=$(echo "$CLOB_TOKEN_IDS" | python3 -c "import json,sys; print(json.loads(sys.stdin.read())[0])")
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=$TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60"

Response: { "history": [{ "t": unix_timestamp, "p": "price_string" }, ...] }

c) Calculate 24h stats for each market:

• Open / Close — first and last price in the history
• Change — close minus open, in percentage points (e.g. +4.0pp)
• High / Low — intraday range
• Volume — volume24hr from the market data
• Direction — classify as: surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5pp), stable (−2 to +2pp), falling (−5 to −2pp), crashing (<−5pp)

P3. Fetch comments

For each event, get top comments and latest comments:

EVENT_ID=... # from step P2a

# Top comments by reactions
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false"

# Latest comments (last 24h chatter)
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=createdAt&ascending=false"

Important: parent_entity_type must be Event (capital E).

Each comment has: body, profile.username (often null → use "anon"), reactionCount, createdAt.

From the combined results, pick the 3 most interesting comments per event:

• New comments from the last 24h get priority (they react to recent moves)
• High-reaction comments that are still relevant
• Contrarian takes, insider-sounding analysis, whale callouts, humor

P4. Build the Polymarket report

For each event, produce a summary block:

**[Event Title]** (event_id: N)

| Market | YES | 24h Chg | High/Low | 24h Vol |
|--------|-----|---------|----------|---------|
| [question] | XX.X% | +X.Xpp ▲ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
| [question] | XX.X% | -X.Xpp ▼ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
...

Biggest mover: "[question]" — [direction] from X% to Y%

Comments:
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]" (X upvotes)
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]"
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]"

Flag any market that moved more than 5 percentage points in 24h — these are the ones worth paying attention to.

P5. Polymarket Network note

curl works — there is no network sandbox. Use WebFetch as a fallback for a flaky public GET:

• WebFetch("https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=SLUG&limit=1")
• WebFetch("https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60")
• WebFetch("https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false")
• All Polymarket gamma-api / clob endpoints are public and need no auth headers.

---

Kalshi branch

Data source: Kalshi trade-api v2 at https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2. Despite the "elections" subdomain, this provides access to ALL Kalshi markets (economics, climate, tech, politics, etc.). All endpoints are public — no auth required.

Watchlist: skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md. Each line is an event ticker; add or remove tickers to change what's monitored.

K1. Load watchlist

if [ -n "$SINGLE" ]; then
  TICKERS="$SINGLE"
else
  TICKERS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md | grep -v '^$')
fi

If the watchlist is empty and no single ticker was given, emit MONITOR_KALSHI_NO_CONFIG, notify with a one-line setup hint, and discover trending events for this run only:

curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?status=open&with_nested_markets=true&limit=10"

Pick the 5 highest-volume events and monitor those.

K2. For each event, fetch markets, prices, and liquidity

For each event ticker:

a) Event + markets:

curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/$EVENT_TICKER?with_nested_markets=true"

Fields used: event_ticker, title, category, mutually_exclusive, markets[] with ticker, title, subtitle, status, yes_bid, yes_ask, last_price, volume, volume_24h, open_interest, close_time, series_ticker.

Skip non-open markets (closed/settled are historical).

b) 24h candlesticks (batch where possible): Prefer the batch endpoint — one call per event, not per market:

END_TS=$(date -u +%s)
START_TS=$((END_TS - 86400))
# Batch: up to 10,000 candlesticks total across requested tickers
curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/candlesticks?tickers=$COMMA_SEP_MARKET_TICKERS&start_ts=$START_TS&end_ts=$END_TS&period_interval=60"

If the batch endpoint errors, fall back to the per-market endpoint:

curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/$SERIES_TICKER/markets/$MARKET_TICKER/candlesticks?start_ts=$START_TS&end_ts=$END_TS&period_interval=60"

If both fail for a market, mark its source as SRC=price_only and use last_price vs yesterday's log entry.

c) Orderbook depth (liquidity / conviction signal):

curl -s "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/$MARKET_TICKER/orderbook?depth=10"

From the orderbook, compute:

• spread_pp = yes_ask − yes_bid in percentage points. Wide spread = low conviction, thin book.
• depth_usd = sum over top-10 bid levels of price × size (approximation, both sides). This scales how much weight to give a price.

If orderbook fails, mark SRC=no_book and skip the conviction column for that market.

K3. Compute per-market signals

For each open market:

• implied_prob = last_price as a percentage (0.62 → 62%). Report this, not cents.
• chg_pp = close − open from candlesticks, in percentage points.
• high / low = intraday range.
• vol_24h_usd ≈ volume_24h × avg(open, close) (Kalshi reports contract count — convert so readers can compare across markets).
• spread_pp and depth_usd from step K2c.
• move_score = |chg_pp| × log10(max(vol_24h_usd, 100)). This is the key ranking signal — a 3pp move on a $200k market outranks a 5pp move on a $5k market. It prevents thin-book noise from dominating.

Direction label (from chg_pp): surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5), stable (−2 to +2), falling (−5 to −2), crashing (<−5).

Conviction label (from spread_pp): tight (<2pp), loose (2–5pp), thin (>5pp, treat price skeptically).

K4. Decide what's worth saying — suppression rules

Before building the report, drop markets that fail ALL of these gates:

• |chg_pp| >= 2 AND vol_24h_usd >= $1,000, OR
• vol_24h_usd >= $25,000 (large volume alone is signal even if price didn't move much), OR
• open_interest grew >30% vs yesterday's log, if yesterday's log has the data.

If a market appeared in yesterday's log with the same direction and a chg_pp within ±1pp of today's, treat it as "continued from yesterday" and demote it — mention once at the event level, don't re-alert.

Hard alert threshold: |chg_pp| >= 5 AND conviction != thin. These go to the ALERTS block and require a "why it matters" line.

K5. Global ranking

Rank events by the max move_score of any market within them. Cap the report at the top 5 events. Markets within an event are listed in descending move_score order, capped at 3 per event (mention "+N more" if truncated).

K6. Build the Kalshi report

*Kalshi monitor — ${today}*
verdict: [1 sentence — dominant theme or "all quiet"]

**[Event Title]** (EVENT_TICKER) — category
| Market | prob | Δ24h | range | vol | spread |
|--------|------|------|-------|-----|--------|
| [title] | 62% | +4.1pp ▲ | 56–65% | $82k | 1pp |