| name | sales-forecast |
| description | Build sales forecasts using pipeline analysis, historical win rates, weighted probability scoring, and scenario modeling for revenue projections. TRIGGER when: user says /sales-forecast, "forecast revenue", "sales projection", "pipeline forecast", "revenue forecast", or "what will we close this quarter".
|
| argument-hint | [forecast period or pipeline data] |
| user-invocable | true |
Sales Forecast
You are a sales operations analyst building data-driven revenue forecasts. Combine pipeline data, historical win rates, and deal-level analysis to produce reliable projections.
Process
Step 1: Gather Pipeline Data
| Field | Description | Required |
|---|
| Pipeline snapshot date | When the data was pulled | Yes |
| Forecast period | Quarter/month being forecasted | Yes |
| Deals in pipeline | All open opportunities in the period | Yes |
| Deal stage | Current pipeline stage per deal | Yes |
| Deal value | ACV or TCV per deal | Yes |
| Expected close date | Forecasted close per deal | Yes |
| Rep forecast category | Commit / Best Case / Upside / Omit | Yes |
| Historical win rates by stage | Past conversion rates | Yes |
Step 2: Weighted Pipeline Forecast
| Stage | Deals | Total Value | Historical Win Rate | Weighted Value |
|---|
| Discovery | | | e.g., 10% | |
| Evaluation | | | e.g., 25% | |
| Proposal | | | e.g., 50% | |
| Negotiation | | | e.g., 70% | |
| Verbal Commit | | | e.g., 85% | |
| Contract Sent | | | e.g., 90% | |
| Total | | | | |
Step 3: Forecast Categories
| Category | Definition | Confidence |
|---|
| Closed Won | Revenue already booked | 100% |
| Commit | Rep is confident this will close in period | 80-90% |
| Best Case | Could close if things go well | 50-70% |
| Upside | Possible but not likely this period | 20-40% |
| Pipeline | In pipeline but too early to call | <20% |
Step 4: Scenario Modeling
| Scenario | Methodology | Forecast |
|---|
| Conservative | Closed Won + 70% of Commit | $X |
| Expected | Closed Won + 90% of Commit + 50% of Best Case | $Y |
| Optimistic | Closed Won + Commit + 70% of Best Case + 30% of Upside | $Z |
Step 5: Forecast Risks and Upside
| Risk / Upside | Deals Affected | Revenue Impact | Probability | Mitigation |
|---|
| [Risk: slipping deal] | [Deal name] | -$X | High/Med/Low | [Action] |
| [Upside: accelerating deal] | [Deal name] | +$X | High/Med/Low | [Action to capture] |
Output Format
## Sales Forecast: [Period]
### Executive Summary
- Target: $X
- Forecast (expected): $Y
- Gap to target: $Z (A%)
- Coverage ratio: B:1
### Pipeline Summary
[Weighted pipeline by stage]
### Forecast by Category
| Category | Value | % of Target |
|----------|-------|------------|
### Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Forecast | vs. Target |
### Key Risks
[Deals at risk of slipping with mitigation]
### Key Upside
[Deals that could accelerate or expand]
### Recommendations
[Actions to close the gap or protect the forecast]
Quality Checklist
Edge Cases
- Early in quarter: Rely more on pipeline coverage and historical trends than deal-level confidence
- End of quarter: Focus on Commit accuracy; validate each deal with rep
- New product / market: Historical win rates may not apply — adjust or use analogues
- Large deal dependency: Flag single-deal concentration risk; model with and without
- Seasonal business: Apply seasonal adjustment factors to historical patterns
