change-event-timeline

name	change-event-timeline
description	Use when the timing of events, turning points, stakeholder behavior changes, or cause-and-effect sequence must be clarified. Use when applying a change event timeline, turning-point analysis, event sequence map, or before-after signal review.
license	Apache-2.0

Change Event Timeline

Use this skill to find what changed, when it changed, and which change most likely matters.

Method Notes

• Many diagnoses fail because they treat all facts as equally current.
• A timeline helps distinguish long-standing background facts from recent trigger events.
• The goal is to identify turning points, causal candidates, and validation questions.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• situation or decision question
• key events and dates or approximate sequence
• before-state and after-state
• stakeholders involved in each event
• observed behavior, decision, metric, or risk change

If an input is missing, mark it as unknown, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use when timing is irrelevant or the decision is purely comparative. Use decision-matrix or weighted-scorecard instead.

Step-by-Step Execution

Step	Required input	How to execute	Output
Define the before-state	Baseline relationship, process, metric, or expectation.	Describe the stable pattern before the relevant change.	Baseline state.
Build event list	Dates, approximate sequence, stakeholder actions, decisions.	Put events in chronological order; include uncertainty when dates are approximate.	Event timeline.
Mark turning points	Event list, behavior or outcome change.	Identify events after which behavior, risk, support, urgency, or outcome changed.	Turning-point candidates.
Distinguish trigger vs background	Timeline, evidence strength, alternative explanations.	Separate events that merely existed from events that likely changed the system.	Trigger/background classification.
Infer causal hypotheses	Turning points, stakeholder moves, external events.	Generate possible explanations that fit the timeline.	Timeline-based hypotheses.
Define next evidence	Weak links, unknown dates, missing stakeholder rationale.	Specify what evidence would confirm or weaken the inferred turning point.	Timeline validation plan.

Output Template

### 1. Baseline Before The Change
- Before-state:
- Normal pattern:
- What would have continued without disruption:

### 2. Change Event Timeline
| Timing | Event | Stakeholders | Evidence strength | What changed after this? | Trigger / background / unknown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  | strong / medium / weak / missing |  |  |

### 3. Likely Turning Points
1.
2.
3.

### 4. Timeline-Based Hypotheses
| Hypothesis | Supporting timeline evidence | What would weaken it | Next check |
|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |

### 5. Action Implication
- Most important change to respond to:
- What not to over-interpret:
- Next validation:

Quality Gate

• Do not invent exact dates when only sequence is known.
• Separate sequence from causation.
• Identify background conditions that matter but did not trigger the change.
• Highlight missing dates or missing reasons if they change the diagnosis.
• Keep the timeline focused on events that affect the decision.