assumption-audit

name	assumption-audit
description	Use as the mandatory evidence gate before signing off on any strategy, PRD, or business case—audits every key claim against documented sources and assigns calibrated probabilities.
license	MIT
compatibility	Claude Code and compatible agent products
metadata	{"type":"workflow","family":"workflow","rigor":"full","keywords":"validation, evidence, claims, assumptions, testing, gate, verification","requires":"problem-framing, business-case","enhances":"devils-advocate, decision-frameworks, strategy-clarity","sources_pdf":"Thinking in Bets (Duke), How to Decide (Duke), Antifragile (Taleb), Seeking Wisdom (Bevelin), Useful Not True (Sivers)","sources_web":"Farnam Street: Decision-Making, Farnam Street: Inversion"}

Overview

Assumption-audit is the "evidence gate" that prevents Resulting (evaluating decisions by outcomes) and Hindsight Bias (feeling something was predictable after it happened). It forces an honest accounting of what is known versus what is guessed.

Iron Law

NO SIGN-OFF WITHOUT VALIDATION EVIDENCE FOR EVERY KEY CLAIM Assertions without evidence are vulnerabilities. Unaudited assumptions create fragile strategies that collapse under the first sign of volatility.

State Machine

digraph assumption_audit_flow {
    "Start" [shape=doublecircle];
    "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" [shape=box];
    "Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)" [shape=box];
    "Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)" [shape=box];
    "Step 4: Probability Calibration" [shape=box];
    "Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" [shape=diamond];
    "Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" [shape=box];
    "Done: Audit Passed" [shape=doublecircle];

    "Start" -> "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions";
    "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" -> "Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)";
    "Step 2: Evidence Mapping (Knowledge Tracker)" -> "Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)";
    "Step 3: Stress-Test (Pre-mortem)" -> "Step 4: Probability Calibration";
    "Step 4: Probability Calibration" -> "Gate: Claim-Evidence Match";
    "Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" -> "Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" [label="matched"];
    "Gate: Claim-Evidence Match" -> "Step 1: Inventory Key Assumptions" [label="mismatch"];
    "Step 5: Fragility Audit (Via Negativa)" -> "Done: Audit Passed";
}