edge

# Edge Detection Skill Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge. ## Commands ### Scan for Edge ``` /edge /edge politics /edge fed ``` ### Compare Specific Market ``` /edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds /edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi ``` ### Kelly Calculator ``` /edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000 # probability, decimal odds, bankroll /edge kelly 55 2.5 # 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll ``` ## Data Sources ### Political - **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models - **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages - **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books - **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices ### Economic - **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities - **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts - **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations ### Sports - **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators - **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings - **Historical Models** - ELO ratings ## Examples User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll ## Output Format ``` 🎯 EDGE DETECTED Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026" Platform: Polymarket Current Price: 23¢ External Sources: • CME FedWatch: 41% • Bloomberg Consensus: 38% • Historical base rate: 35% Estimated Fair Value: 38¢ Edge: +15¢ (+65%) Confidence: Medium Kelly Suggestion: • Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll • Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll ```